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The Bear Will Roar: A Flat Year for the S&P 500 in 2024

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Long varnishing point road in the Mojave Desert

What’s Afoot?

In this piece, I’m going to lay bare why the S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is set to tread water in 2024 and why the notion of a soft landing seems entirely on the cards. In my book, the potential drags on the US economy aren’t homegrown but have their roots outside – specifically, in China.

Dot-Com Bubble (2000)
Savings Household Debt Interest Rates S&P P/E
1997 6.10 11.32 6.06 24.43
1998 5.50 11.16 4.91 32.6
1999 3.70 11.44 4.96 30.5
2000 4.10 11.76 5.83 26.41
2001 3.70 12.36 1.88 46.5
2002 5.30 12.36 1.20 31.89
2003 5.00 12.23 0.98 22.81



Great Recession (2008)
Savings Household Debt Interest Rates S&P P/E
2004 6.20 12.19 2.20 20.7
2005 2.50 12.57 4.09 17.85
2006 2.60 12.73 5.25 17.4
2007 2.40 13.00 4.28 22.19
2008 5.80 12.86 0.08 60.7
2009 5.40 12.30 0.12 21.88
2010 6.20 11.24 0.19 26.43



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