On Tuesday, sugar prices saw a notable increase, with July NY world sugar #11 closing up 0.10 cents (+0.67%) and August London ICE white sugar #5 rising 4.40 cents (+1.02%). The uptick comes amid forecasts from StoneX predicting a global sugar deficit of 550,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2026/27 season, in contrast to a surplus of 2.3 million MT in 2025/26. Meanwhile, recent projections by Citigroup estimate Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season at 39.5 million MT, significantly lower than the 43.95 million MT predicted by Conab, highlighting a shift in sugarcane allocation toward ethanol production due to rising fuel prices.
Notably, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has impacted approximately 6% of the world’s sugar trade, further constraining production. Compounding these factors, the USDA forecasts a surplus of 2.5 million MT for India in 2026/27, the first in two years, as the country remains the world’s second-largest sugar producer. Global market estimates reflect a tightening supply, with Covrig Analytics revising its global surplus forecast for 2026/27 down to 800,000 MT.
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