HomeMost PopularInvestingAnticipating Apple (AAPL) Stock Performance in September Ahead of iPhone Launch

Anticipating Apple (AAPL) Stock Performance in September Ahead of iPhone Launch

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September arrives with much anticipation, not just for students returning to school or the start of football season in America, but also for tech investors eager for Apple (AAPL) to unveil its latest iPhone models. As excitement builds, predictions about the new features and changes have become more accurate over time, thanks to the large number of people eagerly awaiting this information. Websites like macrumors.com offer thorough analysis of what to expect from the next iPhone release, and their forecasts have proven to be fairly accurate.

Despite the availability of reliable predictions weeks or even months in advance, the impact on Apple stock leading up to an iPhone launch has been anything but minimal. Historically, AAPL stock tends to decline throughout September before bouncing back strongly shortly after the launch. Of course, external factors can sometimes distort this pattern, but it has shown to be consistently reliable.

Chart Analysis of AAPL Performance in September

Apple 5 year chart

The provided chart displays AAPL’s performance over the past five years, with each candle representing a month. It’s evident that AAPL has experienced declines in four out of the last five Septembers. Although weakness can persist into early October, the stock has consistently bounced back.

There are valid reasons for this pattern. As an impending launch draws near, initial excitement about the new product often gives way to skepticism. Analysts and traders question whether minor changes can truly drive sales growth and concerns about pricing start to dominate the narrative. This sentiment can persist even after the launch. However, once concrete sales numbers and rumors emerge, indicating strong demand for the new iPhone, the stock typically rebounds.

Apple has long relied on its business model of making small design and feature tweaks to sustain demand for its updated devices. Despite this strategy, they have consistently managed to create consumer demand, aided by efficient marketing and the payment plans most people use to purchase their phones. By spreading payments over a couple of years and upgrading once the previous payments are complete, consumers are willing to incur slight increases in monthly bills for the latest features and improvements.

While these updates are not groundbreaking innovations, they represent Apple’s take on existing technologies from other companies. For instance, rumors suggest the upcoming iPhone will feature a telescopic camera lens for enhanced zoom and close-up photography, an idea initially introduced by Samsung with the Galaxy S4 Zoom a decade ago. Although Samsung refined and advanced this technology over the years, Apple’s sleeker and improved version is expected to captivate consumers and become the next sought-after iPhone feature.

I am not criticizing Apple for leveraging and improving upon the technology of others. This approach has been proven successful and aligns with their business model over the past two decades or so. The remarkable performance of AAPL stock during this time speaks for itself. While the S&P 500 has gained approximately 400% in the last two decades, AAPL has soared by nearly 45,000%. These numbers should not be ignored, regardless of differing opinions on Apple’s strategies for demand creation and technology utilization.

Therefore, when AAPL experiences a decline nearing the launch, as historical patterns suggest, it should be seen as a buying opportunity rather than a reason for concern. This seasonal trend has occurred consistently in previous years, despite the pessimistic predictions claiming the end of AAPL’s success. The naysayers have been proven wrong thus far and are likely to be wrong again.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Source: Nasdaq.com

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