CSX Corporation Earnings Report Scheduled for April 2025

CSX Corporation (NASDAQ:CSX) is set to release its earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025. Analysts forecast earnings of $0.37 per share with sales reaching $3.46 billion for this quarter. This is a decrease from the previous year, which reported earnings of $0.46 per share on sales of $3.68 billion. The expected decline may stem from ongoing challenges in coal freight and a general softening of revenue per carload. Despite this, CSX’s stock has historically reacted positively to earnings announcements. Over the past five years, the stock exhibited a one-day positive return in 65% of cases following earnings releases, with a median return of 2.6% and a peak return of 4.3%.

CSX currently boasts a market capitalization of $54 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $15 billion in revenue and maintained operational profitability with $5.4 billion in operating profits and $3.5 billion in net income. The market reaction following the earnings report will heavily depend on how results align with investor expectations. For event-driven traders, analyzing historical patterns can prove beneficial; you can either gauge the historical odds and strategize before the earnings announcement, or examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns to aid your decisions one day post-announcement.

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CSX’s Historical Success with Post-Earnings Returns

Examining the one-day returns following earnings announcements reveals some important patterns:

• Out of 20 earnings records from the past five years, 13 were positive and 7 were negative, yielding positive returns approximately 65% of the time.
• This likelihood increases to 67% when focusing on the last three years.
• The median return for the 13 positive cases was 2.6%, whereas the median for the 7 negative returns stood at -3.2%.

Additionally, observed returns over 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) periods following earnings are summarized in the accompanying table below.

CSX observed returns in various periods following earnings

Analyzing Returns: 1D, 5D, and 21D Correlation

For those seeking a lower-risk strategy, understanding correlations between short-term and medium-term post-earnings returns can be advantageous. Traders should identify pairs with the highest correlation and execute appropriate trades. For instance, if both 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation, then a positive 1D post-earnings return could warrant a “long” position for the next 5 days. Data below reflects correlations based on both 5-year and 3-year (more recent) histories. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the relationship between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.

CSX Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

Systematic Strategies & Rules-Based Wealth Management

Trefis employs systematic portfolio strategies focused on risk management by combining high-quality selections with active hedges. We collaborate with Empirical Asset Management, a rules-based wealth manager, to provide these strategies to investors. For more information on Trefis strategies or Empirical, visit this link.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.