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The Tightly Contested Race: Biden Holds a Slight Lead Over Trump in Latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll

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Washington’s Political Duel

As the political battleground heats up once again, U.S. President Joe Biden maintains a razor-thin 1% edge over his predecessor, Donald Trump, in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll results. With the November presidential election looming on the horizon, both contenders have garnered sufficient support from their respective parties to secure their names on the ballot.


The survey, conducted over a week and concluding on Wednesday, reveals that 39% of registered voters would cast their ballots for Biden, while 38% would opt for the Republican former President, Trump. Biden’s marginal lead falls within the poll’s 1.8% margin of error, highlighting the intense competition between the two political heavyweights.

Undecided Territory

Despite the apparent allegiance split between the two main contenders, a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided. With 11% considering other candidates, 5% expressing disinterest in voting, and 7% remaining indecisive or unwilling to disclose their choice, the race holds unforeseeable outcomes.

Historical Echoes

Entering a historical phase, this election heralds the first U.S. presidential rematch in nearly 70 years, where both candidates bear substantial vulnerabilities. Biden’s age, at 81, and Trump’s impending legal battles, including four criminal trials concerning his attempt to overturn the 2020 election, raise concerns among voters.

Forecasting Frenzy

Despite the uncertainties and lingering doubts, various measurements of support for Biden and Trump among the electorate have consistently pointed towards a closely contested race, with both politicians fiercely vying for the public’s approval.

Pivotal States

Examining the closest battlegrounds from the 2020 election, the poll indicates Trump leading Biden 40% to 37% among registered voters in the seven key states. While national surveys provide insights, it is the handful of competitive states that sway the scales in the U.S. electoral college, ultimately deciding the victor.

A Third Dimension

The poll introduces an intriguing angle with Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, garnering 15% support among registered voters if he were to join the ballot as a third candidate. This figure, down from 17% in January, suggests Kennedy’s potential to draw votes from both Trump and Biden, adding a fresh layer of uncertainty to the electoral landscape.

Party Permutations

Intriguing dynamics within the Republican party emerge as Trump secures the nomination against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Nevertheless, vulnerabilities persist among independents and even within Trump’s own party, with only a fraction of Haley’s initial supporters pledging their allegiance to the former President.

New Perspectives

Recent events, like the controversial court ruling in Alabama regarding frozen embryos, shed light on voters’ divergent opinions. With only a quarter supporting the ruling that considers embryos as children, a majority disagree, underscoring the nuanced moral fabric of the electorate.

Data Insights

Amassing responses from 4,094 U.S. adults nationwide, including 3,356 registered voters, the Reuters/Ipsos poll reflects a snapshot of the evolving political landscape. With a 1.8% margin of error for registered voters and 1.7% for all respondents, the results present a compelling narrative of a nation at a crossroads.

Biden, Trump continue the closely matched White House race. Read more

Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Leslie Adler

Email: [email protected]; Twitter: @langejason

The perspectives shared are of the author and not necessarily those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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