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On Tuesday, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) closed up +0.05 (+0.35%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed down -0.30 (-0.07%). The rise in NY sugar was supported by a strong Brazilian real, which reached a 17-month high against the dollar, discouraging Brazilian export sales.
Recent forecasts indicate robust sugar supplies globally, with Brazil’s 2025/26 sugar production estimate raised to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT. India’s sugar production is also expected to increase to 31 MMT for the same season, an 18.8% rise year-over-year. Furthermore, Thailand anticipates a +5% increase in its 2025/26 sugar crop to 10.5 MMT.
The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, although this represents an improvement from the -4.88 MMT deficit in 2024/25. Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts global sugar production to climb +4.7% year-over-year to a record 189.318 MMT for 2025/26.
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