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As of October 2023, March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) rose by +0.06 (+0.42%), while December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) fell by -0.90 (-0.22%). This fluctuation follows a 17-month high in the Brazilian real, impacting exports from Brazil’s sugar producers and leading to short covering in NY sugar futures.
Brazil’s sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upward to 45 million metric tons (MMT), while India’s sugar output prediction also increased to 31 MMT, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 18.8%. Signs of higher sugar production in both nations suggest bearish trends for global sugar prices, leading to recent price lows, including a 5-year low for NY sugar and a 4.75-year low for London sugar.
According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), a slight global deficit of -231,000 metric tons is expected for the 2025/26 season. The USDA projects that global sugar production will rise by 4.7% to 189.318 MMT, with record consumption expected at 177.921 MMT.
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