On Wednesday, September arabica coffee (KCU25) closed down by 0.75 cents (-0.26%), while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) fell by 58 cents (-1.58%). Arabica coffee prices have dropped to a contract low due to an advancing coffee harvest in Brazil, where the Cooxupe coffee co-op reported the harvest was 31% complete as of June 27, compared to 42% last year. Forecasts indicate dry conditions in Brazil’s coffee regions, potentially boosting the harvest further.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projects Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26 to increase by 0.5% year-over-year, reaching 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s production is expected to rise by 6.9% to 31 million bags. However, Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2023/24 crop year has decreased by 20% to 1.472 million metric tons, the smallest crop in four years.
As for inventory data, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories reached 843,759 bags as of Wednesday, just below a recent 4-3/4-month high. In contrast, robusta coffee stocks hit a 6-week low of 5,108 lots last Thursday. Globally, the USDA forecasts coffee production in 2025/26 to reach a record 178.68 million bags, with an arabica production decline and robusta production increase.
