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On Tuesday, December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) closed down -273 (-4.47%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) fell by -206 (-4.73%), marking four-week and three-week lows respectively. The decline in cocoa prices follows reports of a stronger-than-expected crop in West Africa.
Cocoa production in the Ivory Coast is optimistic, with recent data showing the cocoa pod count is 7% above the five-year average. However, soft global demand has been noted, as Hershey’s CEO described Halloween chocolate sales as “disappointing,” contributing to a broader bearish sentiment. Asian cocoa grindings decreased by 17% year-on-year, while European grindings fell 4.8% year-on-year to a decade low.
From October 1 to November 8, cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast totaled 411,979 MT, down 9% year-on-year. Meanwhile, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports have fallen to a 7.5-month low, totaling 1,786,616 bags. The International Cocoa Organization estimated a global cocoa deficit of 494,000 MT for 2023/24, the largest in over 60 years, while predicting a surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25.
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