March cocoa prices fell significantly on Monday, with ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) closing down 95 points (-2.26%) and ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) down 94 points (-3.08%). This decline comes as global cocoa supplies remain abundant, contributing to a forecasted surplus of 287,000 metric tons (MT) for the 2025/26 season and 267,000 MT for 2026/27, according to StoneX.
Demand for cocoa has dwindled, evidenced by Barry Callebaut AG reporting a 22% decline in cocoa volume sales for the quarter ending November 30 due to weakened market demand. Additionally, European cocoa grindings for Q4 fell 8.3% year-over-year, marking the lowest Q4 figures in 12 years, while Asian grindings decreased by 4.8%.
On the supply side, cocoa inventories monitored by ICE reached a 3.25-month high of 1,812,564 bags. Meanwhile, cocoa exports from Nigeria decreased by 7% year-over-year to 35,203 MT, raising concerns about future production as Nigeria’s Cocoa Association anticipates an 11% drop in the 2025/26 season.
