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On December 5, 2023, cocoa prices saw notable increases, with March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) rising by $5 (+0.09%) to reach a 3.5-week high and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) up by $63 (+1.55%), supported by an outlook for a smaller-than-expected global cocoa surplus.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has revised its estimates for the global 2024/25 cocoa surplus to 49,000 MT from a previous 142,000 MT and production to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT. Additionally, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in U.S. ports have dropped to 1,675,801 bags, an 8.75-month low, while cocoa shipments from the Ivory Coast decreased by 1.8% year-on-year to 804,288 MT during the current marketing year from October 1 to December 7.
Favorable weather conditions in West Africa, however, are expected to improve yields, with cocoa pod counts in the region reported to be 7% above the five-year average, potentially contributing to an ample supply environment that weighs on prices.
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