## Target Stock Forecast: Can TGT Rebound Past Q3 After a 28% Decline This Year?
Target (NYSE: TGT), the prominent discount chain in the U.S., is poised to announce its fiscal third-quarter results on November 15. Despite a challenging year marked by a significant stock decline, there is optimism that Target’s stock will rally post-Q3 due to anticipated revenue and earnings surpassing expectations. This year’s stock dip is attributed to shifting consumer sentiment and sluggish company sales, with consumers tightening their spending on non-essentials. Target has also issued a cautious full-year 2023 guidance, expecting a mid-single-digit comparable sales decline for the latter half of the year and revising down its adjusted earnings per share forecast. However, the company’s commitment to customer loyalty, coupled with revenue growth from omnichannel initiatives and brand partnerships, is projected to yield long-term benefits.
### Target Stock Performance
Target’s stock endured a steep 40% drop from $175 in early January 2021 to its current value. In contrast, the S&P 500 experienced a 20% gain during the same period. Reflecting on the recent years, TGT has underperformed the S&P 500, posing a challenge not only for TGT but also for other heavyweights in the Consumer Staples sector and even megacap stars. However, the High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has consistently outperformed the S&P 500, signaling a different trend in the market.
### Target’s Valuation and Market Potential
Analyzing Target’s valuation, our forecast suggests a value of $138 per share, representing a nearly 28% upside from the current market price. Trefis estimates Target’s Q3 2023 revenues to exceed the consensus estimate by a slight margin, and the earnings per share (EPS) are projected to outperform the consensus estimate. The company’s efforts in reducing inventory and improving gross margins are expected to have a positive impact on its operating income and adjusted earnings per share.
### Future Outlook and Comparison
Considering the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, including elevated oil prices and interest rates, the question emerges whether TGT will encounter a situation akin to 2022 and 2023 and underperform the S&P 500 or stage a recovery.
Peer Comparison and Returns
| Metrics | Nov 2023 MTD | 2023 YTD | 2017-23 Total |
| TGT Return | -3% | -28% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 5% | 15% | 97% |
| Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio | 4% | 22% | 525% |
In conclusion, despite the challenging year for Target, there are positive signals for a potential rebound after the Q3 results, buoyed by anticipated revenue and earnings exceeding expectations. The intrinsic value of Target’s stock also presents an attractive upside. As the market navigates uncertainties, the outlook for TGT’s performance relative to its peers and the S&P 500 remains a point of interest.
For more comprehensive insights, explore our interactive dashboard analysis on [TGT’s Earnings Preview: What To Expect in Q3.](https://www.trefis.com/data/companies/TGT/no-login-required/fJEI9BBp/Target-TGT-FY-2023Q3-Earnings-Preview-TGT-Stock-Likely-To-Trade-Higher-With-Revenues-And-Earnings-Beating-Expectations)
It is important to acknowledge that the views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the author and not necessarily those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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