As of today, August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) is down -0.66 (-1.01%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) is down -0.41 (-0.20%). Market pressures are attributed to expectations of an OPEC+ production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) during their meeting on Sunday. President Trump’s comments on potential sanctions relief for Iran also contributed to the downward trend in crude prices.
OPEC+ plans to incrementally reverse a two-year production cut that will restore 2.2 million bpd by 2026, with recent production rising to 27.54 million bpd. Despite some bearish economic indicators in the US, a projected record of 61.6 million people traveling by car over the Fourth of July holiday could support gasoline demand.
US crude oil inventories as of June 20 are reported to be 10.9% below the seasonal five-year average, while active US oil rigs have declined by six to a three-and-three-quarter-year low of 432 rigs. Global crude oil stored on tankers also decreased by 8.7% week-over-week to 80.22 million barrels, indicating potential support for oil prices.
