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Hogs Surge in Anticipation of NASS Data Hogs Pushing Upside into NASS Data

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Hog Futures Soar

Lean hog futures are currently trading approximately 70 cents below the session high, showing gains ranging from 40 to 80 cents. The USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price took a dip, standing at $79.26, reflecting a $1.37 decrease. Moreover, the CME Lean Hog Index saw an increase, reaching $83.69 as of 3/25.

Increase in Pork Sales

Recent data from USDA’s FAS revealed a significant surge in pork sales, amounting to 55.3k MT for the week ending 3/21. This notable increase, reaching a yearly high, was primarily driven by strong sales to Vietnam and Italy.

Anticipation for USDA’s Report

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the USDA’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report set to be released later today. Expectations include a decline in the Kept for breeding category, estimated to be between 95.2 and 98% of the previous year. However, this reduction may be counterbalanced by higher productivity, with projected pigs per litter showing a 3.4% increase from last year. Overall market hog and all hog numbers are anticipated to remain stable or slightly above the figures from the previous year.

Market Performance

On Wednesday afternoon, the USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value experienced another drop, down by $1.27 to $94.06. Additionally, USDA’s figures indicated that FI hog slaughter for the week reached 1.457 million head by Wednesday. This represents a minor decline from the previous week but marks an increase of 15k head compared to the corresponding period last year.

Current Market Figures

April 24 Hogs are valued at $86.475, showing an uptick of $0.375, while May 24 Hogs stand at $91.900, reflecting a decrease of $0.500. Moreover, the April 24 Pork Cutout is priced at $95.500, up by $1.550.

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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