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Needham Analysts Praise TerrAscend’s Strong Growth Momentum and Projected 4Q Performance

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dalle 2023 11 10 14.31.32 an artistic representation of the cannabis industry highlighting growth and success. the image features a large thriving cannabis plant in the center

TerrAscend Corp. TSNDF experienced remarkable growth in the third quarter, with a positive outlook for sustaining this momentum in the fourth quarter. This expansion was primarily driven by the conversion to adult-use in Maryland and enhanced operational efficiency, resulting in improved EBITDA margins. Needham analysts, Matt McGinley and Chad Britnell, shared their insights on the company’s earnings report.

Impressive Financial Performance in 3Q

TerrAscend witnessed a substantial increase in revenue, soaring 24% quarter-over-quarter and 35% year-over-year, reaching $89.2 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $82.6 million.

The surge in revenue was propelled by the acquisition and conversion of Maryland assets to adult use legalization, alongside an upsurge in wholesale revenue in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The gross margin surpassed expectations at 53.3%, driven by enhanced sales leverage and operational efficiency.

The strategic realignment executed by TerrAscend received commendation from Needham analysts, underscoring the pivotal role of the company’s adept management of market dynamics and opportunities in driving its impressive revenue growth.

Future Outlook: 4Q Projections and Operational Focus

TerrAscend has revised its full-year sales guidance, signaling consistent revenue projections from the third to the fourth quarter. The company also raised its 2023 EBITDA guidance by $10 million, reflecting a 9-point improvement in EBITDA margins.

With a 40% reduction in debt and a 30% decrease in interest expenses, Terrascend’s financial position appears robust. The company is now concentrating on acquiring assets to expand operations in existing states, with a particular focus on establishing retail partnerships in New Jersey.

Considering this positive trajectory, Needham foresees sustained financial stability for TerrAscend. The analysts emphasized the company’s strategic financial management, notably the significant reduction in debt, as pivotal elements positioning it for robust cash flow and consistent revenue in the upcoming quarter.

Analyst Insights and Positioning in the Market

In their research note, Needham analysts highlighted TerrAscend’s concentrated but deep presence in the cannabis market, underscoring potential growth opportunities in wholesale and retail collaborations, especially in New Jersey and Maryland.

While acknowledging the competitive landscape in Michigan and the contraction of the wholesale market in Pennsylvania, they identified avenues for expansion through acquisitions and streamlining operational efficiency.

Evaluation and Associated Risks

TerrAscend’s stock is currently rated as a β€œHold,” trading at an EV/EBITDA premium in comparison to its peers. This reflects expectations of full-year gains from New Jersey assets and contributions from the adult-use market in Maryland in 2023 and 2024.

However, risks such as venturing into new markets, regulatory complexities, and pricing dynamics within the U.S. cannabis industry could influence future growth and valuation.

TerrAscend’s third-quarter performance signifies a substantial upturn in revenue and margins, establishing an optimistic trajectory for the company. Despite challenges posed by market dynamics and regulations, their strategic focus and operational efficiency present a promising outlook for sustained growth.

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