NVDA’s Trade War Vulnerability: $8B Sales Impact from Export Restrictions in Q2

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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is projected to lose about $8 billion in revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to new U.S. export rules preventing its H20 AI chips from being shipped to China. This will result in a revenue growth forecast of $45 billion for the quarter, marking only a 2% increase—NVIDIA’s slowest in nine quarters. Additionally, the company has written down $4.5 billion in unsold inventory, underscoring its significant reliance on the Chinese market.

Rivals Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel (INTC) face similar challenges, with AMD estimating that the export ban on its MI308 GPUs could cost around $800 million. Intel’s Gaudi 3 chips, crucial for its expansion strategy, are also restricted from export to China, threatening its volume objectives and profit margins. Overall, the U.S. export restrictions present substantial risks to the growth of major AI chip manufacturers.

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