Optical Networking Stock Outshines Nvidia as the Unexpected AI Winner

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Key Points

Coherent (NYSE: COHR) has outperformed Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) over the past 12 months, with a surge of over 400% compared to Nvidia’s 50% increase. This growth is attributed to Coherent’s role as a leading provider of optical networking components crucial for handling the demands of AI and cloud infrastructures.

In fiscal 2025, Coherent’s revenue increased by 23%, driven by data center upgrades for generative AI applications. Analysts project a 30% CAGR in revenue from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, with expectations of positive earnings per share starting in fiscal 2026. However, Coherent’s stock is currently valued at 63 times its fiscal 2027 earnings, in contrast to Nvidia’s 22 times, raising concerns about its future performance in a competitive market.

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