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Optimized Natural Gas Withdrawal Forecasts Reveal Unusual Winter Trends Optimized Natural Gas Withdrawal Forecasts Reveal Unusual Winter Trends

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Repeating Wednesday’s insightful poll, unaltered ahead of the EIA’s report release.

February 21, 2023 (Reuters) – A Reuters poll conducted on Wednesday revealed that U.S. utilities are anticipated to have extracted a notably lower 64 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage last week due to unseasonably warm weather, curbing the demand for heating fuel.

Comparatively, last year saw a withdrawal of 75 bcf during the same week, while the five-year (2019-2023) average decline for this period stands at 168 bcf.

The previous week, ending on February 9, witnessed a 49 bcf draw from gas storage. USOILN=ECI

The forecast for the week concluding on February 16 would reduce stockpiles to 2.471 trillion cubic feet (tcf), marking a 12.1% surplus over the same week of the previous year and standing 22.4% above the five-year average.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to publish its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT) on Thursday.

According to data from financial firm LSEG, there were 154 heating degree days (HDDs) last week, in contrast to a 30-year normal of 178 HDDs for the period.

HDDs represent the number of degrees a day’s average temperature is beneath 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 Celsius) to gauge the demand for heating homes and businesses.

Eleven analysts were polled by Reuters, with estimates ranging from withdrawals of 48 bcf to 82 bcf, and a median reduction of 64 bcf.

Early estimates for the week ending February 23 varied from withdrawals of 84 bcf to 113 bcf, with an average decrease of 97 bcf.

Comparatively, this diverges from a withdrawal of 79 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average reduction of 143 bcf.

Below is the list of the poll’s participants along with their forecasts, all measured in billions of cubic feet:

Organization

Forecasts in (bcf)

Energy Ventures Analysis

-48

Snapper Creek Energy

-51

Energy Aspects

-58

Gelber & Associates

-62

Schneider Electric

-63

StoneX Group

-64

LSEG

-65

Natural Gas Intelligence

-65

Ritterbusch Associates

-71

DTN

-80

C H Guernsey

-82

Reported by Daksh Grover in Bengaluru; edited by Scott DiSavino and Marguerita Choy

(([email protected];))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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