Soybean Market Shows Resilience with Gains Amid Recent Trends
Managed Money Adjustments and USDA Expectations Shape Current Dynamics
The soybean market is experiencing gains of 4 to 5 cents across most nearby contracts this Monday morning. After dropping early on Friday, soybeans managed to close the day steady to ¼ cent higher, while other contracts showed declines between 1 ¼ and 2 ¾ cents. Notably, January achieved a gain of 4 ¼ cents last week. CmdtyView’s national front month Cash Bean price rose by ¼ cent to $9.45. However, soymeal futures fell, decreasing by $1.70 to $3.60 per ton, with 43 deliveries against December meal recorded. In contrast, Soy Oil futures rose by 61 to 72 points during the session.
The Commitment of Traders report released Friday afternoon indicated that managed money decreased their net short position in soybean futures and options, cutting 9,255 contracts as of December 3. This left their position at 72,217 contracts by Tuesday. Similarly, soybean meal speculators reduced their near-record net short by 2,117 contracts, resulting in a total of 73,299 contracts.
As the monthly USDA report approaches, changes to the U.S. balance sheet are anticipated to be minimal. A Reuters survey estimates the average projection at 469 million bushels, reflecting only a 1 million bushel decrease from November’s total.
The latest weekly Export Sales report indicates that marketing year soybean shipments have reached 21.703 million metric tons (MMT), a 19% increase compared to last year. This figure represents 44% of the USDA’s year-end projection of 1.825 billion bushels, surpassing the 40% average pace expected. Commitments are now at 36.185 MMT, marking a 12% increase from the same week last year, aligning at 73% of the USDA projection and above the average pace of 72%.
Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.93 3/4, unchanged, and are currently up 4 1/4 cents.
Nearby Cash was recorded at $9.45, up 1/4 cent.
Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $9.99 1/4, also unchanged, but currently are up 4 1/2 cents.
Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.20, down 2 1/4 cents, while currently, they are up 4 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have any direct or indirect positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are intended solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
