S&P 500 at Record High: Historical Insights on Second Half Performance

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The S&P 500 closed the first half of 2023 at a record high, gaining 15% during this period amid improved investor sentiment and trade talks. In contrast, the index faced declines earlier in the year due to concerns over President Trump’s tariff plans. This recovery reflects a positive shift in expectations, particularly for growth stocks such as Nvidia and Alphabet, which posted strong earnings.

Historical data highlights a pattern where the S&P 500’s performance in the latter part of the first half typically predicts its full-year outcome. For instance, the index rose after a positive first-half finish in 2021, concluding the year with a 26% gain. If this trend continues, analysts predict the S&P 500 could see double-digit growth in the second half of 2023.

Year S&P 500 First-Half Performance S&P 500 Full-Year Performance
2018 1.6% (6.2%)
2019 17% 28%
2020 (4%) 16%
2021 14% 26%
2022 (20%) (19%)
2023 15% 24%
2024 14% 23%

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