Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) will announce its first-quarter 2025 results after the market closes on April 22.

Over the past four quarters, Steel Dynamics has consistently surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings. The company has an average earnings surprise of about 3.6% across this period, with a notable surprise of approximately 5.4% in the last reported quarter. Analysts suggest that the upcoming results may show higher profitability in the company’s steel operations.

As of now, Steel Dynamics’ shares have increased by 3.7% year-to-date, markedly outperforming the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s modest rise of 1.2%.

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Expectations for Steel Dynamics’ Upcoming Results

For the first quarter, Steel Dynamics projects its earnings to fall between $1.36 and $1.40 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in this quarter stands at $4,149.5 million, reflecting an anticipated year-over-year decline of 11.6%.

Key Factors Influencing STLD’s Performance

Analysts expect that heightened profitability in Steel Dynamics’ steel operations will support its first-quarter results. The company noted last month that its operations are expected to perform better in Q1 compared to Q4, aided by increased shipments. However, some margin compression from contractual steel prices lagging behind recent spot price increases is expected.

Demand is largely driven by sectors such as energy, automotive, non-residential building, and industrial. Estimates indicate total external steel shipments of approximately 2.79 million tons for the first quarter, suggesting a sequential increase of 6.6%, while staying flat compared to the same period last year.

Despite a rough year for U.S. steel prices, which fell more than 40% last year due to surging imports and weaker demand, there have been recent price increases. Benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropped from $1,200 per short ton at the beginning of 2024 to around $700 per short ton by year-end. Following price hikes at steel mills and the implementation of a 25% tariff on steel imports by the Trump administration, current HRC prices are above $900 per short ton. Nonetheless, these benefits are not expected to significantly influence the first-quarter performance of steel companies.

Lower realized selling prices are anticipated to affect STLD’s profit margins in this quarter. The estimated average external selling price for the company’s steel operations stands at $1,019, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 15.1%.

Price and EPS Surprise Trends for Steel Dynamics

Steel Dynamics, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Steel Dynamics, Inc. Quote

Our Forecast Model for STLD

Our model does not indicate a definitive earnings beat for STLD this quarter. To achieve an earnings surprise, companies usually require a positive earnings ESP in conjunction with a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold). Unfortunately, that is not applicable in this case.

Earnings ESP: STLD’s earnings ESP is currently at 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is set at $1.39.

Zacks Rank: STLD holds a Zacks Rank of #2.

(To find the latest EPS estimates and surprises, check Zacks earnings Calendar.)

Basic Materials Stocks to Watch

Several companies in the basic materials sector may be worth considering, as our model suggests they have the right mix of factors to achieve an earnings beat this quarter:

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF), set to release earnings on May 7, has an earnings ESP of +10.11% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The consensus estimate for CF’s first-quarter earnings is currently $1.45.

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM), expected to announce earnings on April 24, has an earnings ESP of +20.00% and holds a Zacks Rank of #3. The consensus for AEM’s first-quarter earnings currently sits at $1.19.

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) will release first-quarter earnings on May 6, with an earnings ESP of +18.07%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold’s first-quarter earnings is set at $0.21, and KGC also holds a Zacks Rank of #3.

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This article was originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.