On October 26, sugar prices hit one-week lows amid a significant decline in crude oil prices, with July NY world sugar #11 down 1.06% and August London ICE white sugar #5 down 0.47%. The downturn in crude, which fell over 5% to a seven-week low, is expected to lead sugar mills to focus more on sugar production rather than ethanol, potentially increasing global sugar supplies.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a record global sugar production of 182 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, a 3.5% increase year-over-year. However, for the 2026/27 season, a decline of 1.15% to 180 MMT is anticipated, primarily due to potential disruptions from El Niño conditions affecting major producers like India and Thailand.
Brazil’s sugar production for the 2026/27 season is estimated at 43.952 MMT, a decrease of 0.5%, as reported by Conab, while the USDA forecasts a surplus of 2.5 MMT for India. Additionally, Thailand’s sugar exports increased by 29% year-over-year for January to April, totaling 1.6 MMT, further contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices.
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