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On October 22, sugar prices saw an uptick, with New York world sugar #11 rising by +0.02 (+0.14%) and December London ICE white sugar #5 increasing by +3.00 (+0.72%). This rise follows a week of recovery attributed to short covering and expectations of lower sugar exports from India, projected at 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, down from 2 MMT.
Brazil’s sugar production outlook poses a bearish risk, with estimates for 2025/26 raised to 45 MMT, a +2.3% increase year-on-year, and early October production at 2.484 million tons, up +1.3% from last year. In contrast, India’s sugar production is expected to climb to 31 MMT, an 18.8% increase, due to favorable monsoon conditions boosting yields.
Globally, the International Sugar Organization predicts a sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, a notable reduction from the previous year’s deficit of -4.88 MMT. Meanwhile, the USDA anticipates a 4.7% increase in global sugar production for the same period, reaching a record 189.318 MMT.
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