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On March 1, 2025, NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) decreased by 0.03 cents (-0.20%), while March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) dropped by 2.90 cents (-0.68%). This decline in sugar prices is attributed to an increased supply forecast from India, where sugar production surged by 43% year-over-year to 4.11 million metric tons as reported by the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA).
Additionally, Brazil’s Conab revised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 million metric tons, up from 44.5 million metric tons. Recent reports indicated that Brazil’s Center-South sugar output rose by 8.7% year-over-year to 983,000 metric tons in early November, while cumulative output increased by 2.1% year-over-year to 39.179 million metric tons.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for the 2025-26 marketing year, marking a significant shift from the previous year’s deficit. Increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan is contributing to this surplus, with the ISO also forecasting a global production rise of 3.2% year-over-year to 181.8 million metric tons.
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