As of today, September arabica coffee (KCU25) has fallen by 6.10 cents (-1.96%) to a 6-3/4 month low, while September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down 45 cents (-1.23%). Factors contributing to this decline include an USDA forecast predicting Brazil’s coffee production will rise to 65 million bags in 2025/26—a year-over-year increase of 0.5%—and a 6.9% increase in Vietnam’s production to a four-year high of 31 million bags.
Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, reported that its harvest is only 24.3% complete as of June 20, down from 34.2% at the same time last year. Additionally, Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell by 36% year-over-year to 2.8 million bags, while ICE-monitored arabica inventories rose to a 4-3/4 month high of 850,381 bags as of Thursday.
The USDA’s latest report predicts that world coffee production will increase by 2.5% to a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, with a decrease of 1.7% in arabica production to 97.022 million bags, and an increase of 7.9% in robusta production to 81.658 million bags. This also includes a projected arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags, extending a trend of five consecutive years of deficits.
