As of today, July NY world sugar #11 has decreased by 1.41%, down 0.21 points, while August London ICE white sugar #5 fell by 0.72%, down 3.20 points. This drop in sugar prices coincides with increased sugar exports from Thailand, which rose 29% year-over-year to 1.6 million metric tons (MMT) from January to April 2026.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has projected a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season at 182 MMT, a 3.5% increase year-over-year, creating a surplus estimate of 2.2 MMT. However, potential disruptions from a forecasted El Niño could affect production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 82% probability of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July, possibly impacting rainfall.
Adding to concerns, India’s export ban on sugar remains in effect until September 30 to protect local supplies. Meanwhile, projections indicate Brazil’s 2026/27 sugar production could be reduced to 39.5 MMT, due to increased allocation of sugarcane to ethanol production, according to Citigroup. The global sugar surplus estimates have been revised downward, indicating tighter market conditions ahead.
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