A Pleasant Surprise in Inflation Data
The much-anticipated inflation figures (CPI) turned out to be softer than expected, causing quite a stir in the financial realm.
Behold the US Treasury 10-year yield chart, which coincides with the release of the surprising CPI report.
In isolation, the CPI graph is presented below:
Comparatively, here’s the chart for S&P 500 futures during the same period.
It appears that the sequence of events unfolded as follows:
Unexpectedly soft CPI report ➡ US Treasury’s surge ➡ S&P 500 surges
A Celebrated S&P 500
By taking a step back and examining the daily S&P 500 chart, an intriguing narrative unfolds.
Last week, the discussion centered around a probable “bullish path” for the S&P 500 over the near term.
Bullish Path = A continuation higher from here where the S&P 500 not only breaks the trendline but then retests the trendline thus allowing it to become support and then marching higher from there to take out the next “overhead gap”.
Contrarily, to sustain this bullish momentum, it must dip and fill the gap it recently created, rebound from the downward trendline, and then forge ahead.
Observing the RSI
Note that the RSI is on the brink of “overbought” territory. A subsequent drop to address the gap and rebound from the trend line might mitigate some of the overbought conditions, paving the way for a surge to close the overhead gap.
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