Preparing for the Next Wave of Quantum Computing Innovation
Innovation often unfolds in unexpected ways, especially in technology.
Initially, changes can seem slow and unremarkable, yet one day, the world around us can transform drastically.
Take electricity, for instance.
For centuries, humans viewed lightning as a fascinating, mysterious phenomenon with no clear use. The journey toward making electricity practical began around the 1600s with experiments in static electricity. It wasn’t until 1871 that this knowledge led to the first electric motor, which paved the way for modern applications.
After another 76 years, transistors unlocked the vast potential of electricity. They played a crucial role in advancing technology, enabling computers to assist with achievements like lunar expeditions, satellite communications, and even calculating the number “pi” to over 105 trillion digits.
This leap forward came from harnessing electricity to create the millions of logic gates critical to modern microprocessors.
Quantum computing appears to be on a similar trajectory.
In yesterday’s Market 360, we discussed quantum computing’s fundamental principles and its potential as the next significant breakthrough in the AI landscape.
As this revolution unfolds, investors must stay informed. That’s why I’m holding The Next 50X NVIDIA Call summit on Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. ET.
Reserve your spot here.
Once you’ve secured your place, I encourage you to send me your key questions about quantum computing. I’ve already received several insightful queries, so continue to share your thoughts! Reach out to us at [email protected] with the subject line “Quantum computing questions” so I can make sure to address them all.
Be aware—quantum computing could present transformative investment opportunities, akin to the early moments of the AI Revolution with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA). Major tech companies recognize this shift and are taking preemptive measures.
Quantum Computing’s Pivotal Moment
The journey of quantum technology began in 1955 when physicist Louis Essen activated the first effective quantum machine, the cesium atomic clock.
Essen’s team manipulated cesium atoms with precisely tuned microwaves, bringing them into a “superposition” state—a point of both ground and excited energy. This milestone represents a foundational moment for quantum mechanics, first detailed by German physicist Max Planck in 1900.
We are now on the brink of quantum computing’s “transistor moment.”
Recently, three leading Big Tech companies have highlighted their advancements in “quantum chips”:
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOG)
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)
This raises the question—who will successfully develop the first functional “quantum transistor”? Investors need clarity on where to place their bets.
This article will delve into the three companies’ quantum chip developments. We’ll compare and contrast their technologies to identify potential leaders in the field.
Despite the technical nuances, understanding this landscape is vital for making informed investment decisions.
Moreover, after this discussion, you’ll comprehend why I’m supporting a specific quantum investment that might outpace these larger competitors.
So, let’s explore the details of these three quantum chips.
Examining Alphabet’s Quantum Approach
In 1999, Japanese researchers achieved a breakthrough with the “charge qubit,” a simple circuit combining a capacitor and inductor to facilitate quantum-like oscillations. This development enabled scientists to create quantum behavior on a chip.
Further advances occurred in 2007 with the creation of the “transmon qubit” by Yale researchers. This advanced circuit utilized multiple capacitors to shield qubits from external charge noise, significantly enhancing their longevity and accuracy, reducing error rates to approximately 1 in 500. Below is a simplified circuit diagram illustrating this innovation.
Transmon qubits have emerged as the “workhorse” of quantum chips. Their reliability in creating controlled quantum states makes them preferable over traditional methods that rely on physical atoms, like the cesium clock. However, the current challenge is reducing error rates to enable effective calculations with these qubits.
Google currently leads this vital race. In 2019, the tech giant made headlines with the introduction of its Sycamore quantum chip, the first to incorporate 54 transmon qubits on a single board. Following this, on December 9, it released the Willow chip, featuring 105 qubits that maintain coherence for up to 68 microseconds, a significant fivefold improvement over prior technology.
Despite its advancements, Google’s Willow chip isn’t yet without flaws. The 105-qubit chip is limited in that it can only manage three errors simultaneously, which restricts its application potential. Furthermore, experts suggest that achieving millions of qubits will be essential for scalability.
Advancements in Quantum Computing: Google, Amazon, Microsoft Step Forward
As quantum computing evolves, addressing complex, real-world challenges like breaking encryption remains critical. One of the logistical issues is packing a significant number of qubits, particularly since Willow’s superconducting qubits require near-zero temperatures to function.
Despite these challenges, Google’s recent achievement with its 105 transmon qubit chip marks a significant step forward in quantum technology. The company is beginning to address the scaling issue of error rates, suggesting that larger chips may soon be developed.
Amazon’s Innovative Approach with the Ocelot Chip
On February 27, Amazon introduced the Ocelot quantum chip, an experimental model utilizing five “cat qubits.” This new qubit technology stores quantum information inside a microwave cavity, diverging from the traditional superconducting circuits used in transmon qubits.
The name “cat qubits” draws inspiration from Schrödinger’s thought experiment, depicting a cat that can exist in both dead and alive states until observed. Similarly, cat qubits maintain information in a perplexing quantum state.
While cat qubits present immense potential, they remain experimental and lack assurances for scalability.
One of the main advantages of cat qubits is their significantly lower error rates compared to traditional qubits. They can achieve bit-flip errors (where a qubit changes from “0” to “1”) as low as 1 in 100,000, a notable improvement. In this analogy, a bit-flip error resembles flipping a coin from heads to tails.
Furthermore, cat qubit systems can maintain coherence for up to 1 millisecond, owing to the microwave cavities’ ability to better shield data from external disturbances.
However, cat qubits face challenges in preventing phase-flip errors, which confuse the relative phase between qubits. Continuing with the coin analogy, imagine consistently keeping the coin on heads but swapping the meaning of “heads.”
To address this, Amazon’s Ocelot chip integrates four transmon qubits, matching technology used by Google. This combination creates an error-correcting web that enhances accuracy.
Nonetheless, packing microwave cavities into the ultra-cold cryogenic environment that transmon qubits require poses additional challenges. Microwave interference can generate thermal noise that disrupts cat states, and densely arranged cavities may lead to cross-talk issues. In contrast, transmon qubits have undergone over a decade of development, while cat qubits are in early stages.
Nevertheless, Amazon’s approach carries higher risks but also greater rewards. Its prototype has successfully reduced error rates by as much as 90%, leaving the viability of this hybrid cat/transmon method to be seen.
Microsoft’s Ambitious Majorana 1 Chip
In a bold move, Microsoft has introduced the Majorana 1 chip on February 19, adopting a high-risk, high-reward strategy.
This chip utilizes what is known as a “topological qubit,” allowing for the spread-out storage of quantum data across a surface. Theoretically, this spreading facilitates scaling from dozens to millions of qubits simply by adding surface area. Additionally, topological qubits should be more resilient to errors, as the quantum information is distributed.
For Majorana 1, Microsoft employs semiconductor wires made from indium antimonide (InSb) and indium arsenide (InAs). These materials are optimal for storing an electron’s spin and are encased in a thin aluminum shell needed for forming superconductor quantum states.
Nevertheless, Microsoft faces steeper challenges compared to Google and Amazon, as the functionality of topological qubits remains unverified. The Majorana 1 chip represents merely a fraction of the overall problem in quantum computing.
The complexity of reading information stored across these surfaces complicates matters, and any attempt to do so could alter the data itself. This can be likened to trying to decipher a message written in smoke: an abrupt movement could obscure the text.
According to Microsoft’s paper in Nature, a new measurement technique enables the data to be read on topological surfaces in a single pass, enhancing accuracy by avoiding repeated measurements that can introduce noise and errors.
This represents commendable progress, yet it also illustrates the hurdles Microsoft must overcome to achieve its quantum computing goals.
Considerations for Investors
While Google, Amazon, and Microsoft make significant strides, they are not the only players in the quantum computing space.
In fact, these tech giants might not end up as the ultimate leaders in quantum technology.
Chipmakers like NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) view quantum computing as a formidable challenge to their existing chip dominance. Conventional electricity-based chips often struggle with complex issues like 3D modeling and encryption, which quantum chips could potentially resolve swiftly.
This understanding has prompted companies such as Nvidia to invest billions into quantum startups, recognizing the potential impact of this emerging technology.
As a result, I encourage you to note March 20 for Nvidia’s “Q Day” at 1 p.m. ET.
During this event, Nvidia is expected to unveil a breakthrough technology that could significantly boost the shares of one of its “Q” partners, a small-cap company with immense potential.
To provide details, I’m hosting an urgent video briefing on Thursday, March 13, at 1 p.m. ET, just one week before Nvidia’s announcement. My goal is to prepare you ahead of the anticipated market shift.
Click here now to reserve your spot.
In this free session, I’ll discuss a small-cap company poised to become vital to Nvidia’s forthcoming “Q Day” reveal, backed by 102 patents.
This isn’t my first prediction of this nature. For instance, I previously advised on Nvidia, resulting in substantial gains for those who invested following my recommendations.
Seize this opportunity in the burgeoning quantum revolution.
Sincerely,
Louis Navellier
The Editor’s Disclosure: As of this date, the Editor owns securities mentioned in this commentary, including NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA).
