3M: A Bumpy Ride to Recovery? 3M: A Bumpy Ride to Recovery?

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3M (NYSE: MMM) recently reported its Q4โ€™23 results, surpassing street estimates with a revenue of $8.0 billion and earnings of $2.42 per share. Despite this, the stock has taken a plunge, currently hovering around $90, marking a 50% decline from early January 2021 levels. The companyโ€™s stock has been underperforming the S&P 500 over the past few years, with returns of 2% in 2021, -32% in 2022, and -9% in 2023, compared to the indexโ€™s 27%, -19%, and 24% in the respective years. With this backdrop, investors are now contemplating the future trajectory for 3M.

A Rocky Path

3M stock has traversed a bumpy financial terrain, undergoing a significant decline from its peak in 2021. This has left investors questioning its future prospects, especially given the overall volatility and uncertainty in the market. The recent disappointing stock performance begs the question: whatโ€™s next for 3M?

Remaining upbeat amidst the discouraging performance of MMM is akin to navigating treacherous waters with a tattered sail. The company has grappled with declining sales and legal battles, causing a considerable setback to its growth momentum. In such tempestuous times, the bearish trend for 3M has left investors feeling like sailors caught in a storm without a compass.

Assessing the Performance

Historical context is crucial to understand the magnitude of 3Mโ€™s stock plunge. MMMโ€™s inability to keep pace with the broader market paints a grim picture. Even stalwarts in the Industrials sector, including CAT, GE, and UNP, along with tech giants like GOOG, TSLA, and MSFT, have found the going tough.

The challanges for 3M are quite evident, and the stakes are high. The company is facing multiple headwinds derived from macroeconomic uncertainties, elevated interest rates, and rising oil prices that cast a shadow on its near-term performance. The flickering flame of hope could easily be snuffed out in this oppressive climate.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

Amidst the prevailing gloom, the beam of optimism shines faintly for 3M. Valuations suggest potential growth, with projected stock value at $111 per share, indicating a 20% upside from the current level of around $90. Moreover, the companyโ€™s adjusted operating margin saw a significant 180 basis points year-over-year expansion to 20.9%, offsetting some of the pessimism surrounding its stock performance.

Although there are apprehensions about the long and tedious road to 3Mโ€™s recovery, thereโ€™s a glimmer of hope that investors can latch onto. The companyโ€™s ongoing restructuring efforts, coupled with its venture into a spinoff of its healthcare business as a separate entity โ€“ Solventum, signals a potential turnaround. This transformation may provide the necessary buoyancy for 3M to weather the storm and sail into calmer seas.

Opportunities in Crisis

The recent downturn in 3Mโ€™s stock price has undeniably triggered concerns, but it has also set the stage for astute investors to seek growth in the long term. Borrowing a leaf from the legendary stock market philosophy โ€“ โ€œbuy when thereโ€™s blood in the streetsโ€ โ€“ the current downtrend could potentially pave the way for substantial gains on investment.

The bedrock of 3Mโ€™s revival lies in its unwavering spirit to emerge stronger from the challenges. The current dip in its stock may just be the precursor to a resurgent, more robust 3M, equipped with enhanced margins and a renewed trajectory of earnings growth beyond 2025.

Looking Ahead

Amidst the uncertainty, itโ€™s vital for investors to cast a discerning eye on 3Mโ€™s peers to gain a more comprehensive understanding of its prospects. Market comparisons often provide a clearer perspective on the path to recovery post a downward spiral, offering valuable insights for prospective investors.

Returns Feb 2024
MTD [1]
Since start
of 2023 [1]
Total [2]
ย MMM Return -2% -23% -48%
ย S&P 500 Return 2% 29% 121%
ย Trefisย Reinforced Value Portfolio 3% 42% 627%

[1] Returns as of 2/15/2024
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

It remains to be seen whether 3M will steer its course to revitalization or remain mired in its present challenges. As the company continues to grapple with its tribulations, investors are left pondering if this diluted stock value is a harbinger of future distress or an unforeseen opportunity for a potential windfall.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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