HomeMost PopularThe Wheat Market: A Roller Coaster Ride for Investors

The Wheat Market: A Roller Coaster Ride for Investors

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Market Fluctuations

Wheat prices are seeing a downturn on Thursday, with values dropping up to 8 cents across U.S. classes during the day session. This shift follows a trend from the previous day when Chicago futures settled lower by 1 ½ to 3 ¼ cents, and KC futures closed 7 to 9 ¾ cents in the red. The July HRW/SRW spread has widened to a 21 ¼ cent premium, while Minneapolis spring wheat futures concluded 8 cents weaker at the close. Moreover, September Minneapolis wheat stands at a 9 cent premium compared to May.

Export Sales Expectations

Pre-report estimates suggest a range for wheat export sales, varying between 200k MT of cancellations to 550k MT of net new sales for the old crop in the week ending 3/7. Additionally, traders are anticipating up to 100k MT of new crop wheat sales in the forthcoming weekly report.

Global Price Landscape

Recent FOB prices reveal that French and German wheat are currently the most competitive, priced at approximately $5.60/bu. Russian offers sit ~11c above this mark, with U.S. FOB prices showing a steeper margin at 66c more for SRW and $7.41 for HRW. Notably, Ukraine’s grain union forecasts a decrease in their 2024 wheat crop, projecting it to be the smallest in 12 years at 20 MMT. This is a 14.5% reduction from the previous year, attributed to constraints on land area and labor.

 

May 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.44 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 7 1/4 cents

Jul 24 CBOT Wheat  closed at $5.58 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents, currently down 6 1/2 cents

May 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.87 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents, currently down 6 3/4 cents

Jul 24 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.79 1/2, down 8 cents, currently down 6 3/4 cents

May 24 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.63 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents, currently down 4 1/4 cents

On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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