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The Resilient Rise of Wheat Futures Amidst Market Volatility

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Wheat Futures Market Activity

Chicago wheat futures showed a mostly upward trend overnight, gaining +6 ½ cents. While KC and MGE wheat saw some retreat from their highs at the opening of the day session, they remained in positive territory. Contrarily, SRW futures experienced a slight dip heading into the weekly USDA Export Sales data. The wheat market displayed a remarkable rebound on Wednesday, with robust gains of up to 3%. Leading the rally were noticeable increases in KC wheat by 13 ½ to 17 ¼ cents, with CBT SRW futures also marking gains of 9 ¾ to 10 ¾ cents. Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis observed an uptick of 10 ¼ to 12 cents.

Market Expectations and Shifts

Traders are eagerly anticipating a transition in US wheat export sales towards the new crop delivery window post-June 1. Projections for old crop sales range from -100,000 MT to a positive 400,000 MT. Additionally, estimates for new crop sales span from 75,000 to 250,000 MT. Soymeal sales are expected to fall within a range of 75,000 to 450,000 MT for the week, while bean oil is anticipated to see a net reduction of 5,000 MT to net sales of 20,000 MT for combined 23/24 and 24/25 sales.

Global Market Dynamics

Japan’s recent move to purchase 113.5k MT of wheat in a standard MOA tender involving suppliers from the U.S., Canada, and Australia signals continued market activity. Meanwhile, Jordan initiates a tender for 120,000 MT of milling wheat, with April 16 as the deadline for offers. Russia’s export market witnessed a slight surge due to delayed shipments caused by disputes over phytosanitary certificates.

As the day concluded, CBOT Wheat for May 24 closed at $5.56, marking a gain of 10 3/4 cents, with a current minor decline of 1/4 cent. Similarly, Jul 24 CBOT Wheat ended at $5.72 1/4, reflecting an increase of 10 1/2 cents, with a slight drop of 3/4 cent. KCBT Wheat for May and July 24 closed at $5.80 1/2 and $5.72, registering gains of 17 1/4 and 14 1/2 cents respectively, currently seeing modest upticks. The May 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.39 1/2, up 12 cents, with a current increase of 4 3/4 cents.

On the publication date, Alan Brugler did not hold positions, directly or indirectly, in any securities mentioned in this article. The information provided here is for informational purposes only. For further details, refer to the Barchart Disclosure Policy.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily align with those of Nasdaq, Inc.