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Wheat Still Higher at Midday

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Insights into Flourishing Wheat Market Trends

Upward Momentum: Wheat Market Continues to Thrive

Even after retreating slightly from the peak overnight values by 15-20 cents in select agreements, the wheat market remains bullish as the week draws to a close. Chicago contracts are spearheading the surge, recording gains of 9 to 10 cents in the nearest months. MPLS follows closely behind, with upticks of 5 to 7 cents. Kansas City contracts, although trailing behind, are still showing progress with increases ranging from 2 to 4 cents.

Global Production and Export Dynamics

The latest update from the International Grains Council reports a marginal decrease in the total world wheat production for 2024/2025, settling at 798 million metric tons (MMT). The carryout for the new crop stands at 259 MMT, showing a decline of 3, while the ending stocks for 2023/2024 are reported at 264 MMT.

SovEcon’s revised forecast for Russian wheat production on Friday revealed a decrease of 1 MMT from the March estimate, now pegged at 93 MMT. Concurrently, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry announced an increase of 6.4% in the export tax for Russian wheat, now fixed at 3,443 rubles per metric ton (~$1/bu).

Current Wheat Contracts Performance

As of the latest data:

  • May 24 CBOT Wheat is at $5.46, up 9 1/4 cents
  • Jul 24 CBOT Wheat is at $5.62 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents
  • May 24 KCBT Wheat is at $5.78 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents
  • Jul 24 KCBT Wheat is at $5.78 1/4, up 3 cents
  • Jul 24 MGEX Wheat is at $6.49, up 6 cents

Despite these positive market movements, it’s important to note that on the publication date, Alan Brugler had no positions, directly or indirectly, in any of the securities mentioned in this report, which is solely for informational purposes.

The opinions expressed here belong to the author and do not necessarily align with those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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