Editor’s note: “2025: The Defining Year for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption” was previously published in February 2025 with the title, “Autonomous Vehicles: Why 2025 Will Usher in the Self-Driving Car.” It has since been updated to include the most relevant information available.
2025 Poised to Transform the Landscape of Autonomous Vehicles
The future isn’t coming—it’s already here.
Major technology companies are investing billions into the development of new AI applications. However, most of these projects remain in development stages. As a result, aside from advancements such as ChatGPT, the general public has yet to fully experience the impact of AI.
In contrast, a significant transformation is already evident in the realm of autonomous vehicles (AVs), also known as self-driving cars.
Many individuals may doubt that 2025 will be the year this revolutionary technology goes mainstream. Self-driving cars have lingered in cycles of hype and hesitation, often described as being “five years away” for years. However, 2025 marks a shift.
In the last year, key players in the industry have achieved remarkable progress. Following Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term, the regulatory environment is evolving to favor innovation in this space.
This disruption is not a distant possibility; it is occurring now.
Autonomous vehicles are set to reshape the global transportation services market, which is valued at over $7 trillion. The potential for profit in this sector is enormous.
Companies leading this transformation are making history, and early investors could see substantial returns.
As such, I’ve created a new, research-focused presentation that outlines the key opportunities in the self-driving car sector and how you can benefit from them. (Click here to view that video.)
The AV Experience: A Personal Perspective
To illustrate the ongoing AV revolution, I’d like to share a personal experience instead of just making predictions.
Recently, I returned from a business trip to Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport. Late at night, as my wife and children were asleep, I opted for a ride from a ride-hailing app. When the car arrived, it took me home in the suburbs.
This ride-hailing experience was typical, except for one vital detail…
There was no driver.
The vehicle that picked me up from the airport, navigated Phoenix, and dropped me off at my house was a fully autonomous vehicle from Waymo, the self-driving division of Alphabet Inc. (Stock-ticker”>GOOG).
Waymo has been developing its autonomous vehicle technology for over a decade. Recently, it has been operating autonomous ride-hailing services in Phoenix and several other cities across the United States. Residents in these areas can summon a Waymo to transport them. Many readers may be near one of these locations and could experience it themselves.
That’s precisely what I did for my ride from Phoenix Sky Harbor International to my home, and I even filmed the trip so you can experience it too.
Waymo: Leading Us Toward a Driverless Future
Waymo currently facilitates over 150,000 autonomous rides weekly in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles.
This significant volume is growing rapidly; just a few months ago, Waymo managed about 50,000 rides each week, meaning it has seen a tripling of its ride volume in a short time.
It’s anticipated that this number will triple again in the coming months.
While sheer popularity is noteworthy, we are drawn to this technology for deeper reasons.
Remarkably, Waymo’s self-driving vehicles demonstrate significantly higher safety compared to human-driven cars. Having traveled over 22 million miles, these vehicles have registered 84% fewer incidents requiring airbag deployment, 73% fewer crashes causing injuries, and 48% fewer crashes reported by police in comparison to human drivers.
Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are here, showcasing a high level of safety.
While some skeptics may point out that Waymo operates in only three cities, implying it isn’t a “national” service, there are plans for rapid expansion. Waymo aims to launch in 10 new metropolitan areas in 2025, which includes Las Vegas, San Diego, Atlanta, Austin, and Miami. By the end of the year, the company will be active in 13 cities.
There are only 17 U.S. cities with populations over 750,000. By 2026, Waymo will be operating in 75% of those cities.
It’s a transformative time for the autonomous vehicle industry, with promising developments on the horizon.
The Rise of Autonomous Vehicles: National Rollout on the Horizon
Autonomous Vehicles Gaining Momentum
This year marks significant advancements for Waymo and other companies working to make self-driving cars a reality.
Aurora Innovation (Stock-ticker”>AUR), an autonomous trucking firm, has formed partnerships with notable industry players such as Paccar, Volvo, and Uber Freight to develop fully autonomous trucks. Similarly, another startup, Kodiak Robotics, is also making strides in autonomous freight transportation.
Both companies are set to launch fully self-driving trucks on Texas roads later this year, operating without safety drivers. Soon, residents may witness self-driving 18-wheelers transporting goods between cities. Additionally, Aurora plans to introduce autonomous trucks in the Phoenix area in the near future.
Across the Pacific, Baidu (Stock-ticker”>BIDU) has initiated an autonomous ride-hailing service named Apollo Go, which has quickly gained traction by completing nearly 100,000 rides weekly. Meanwhile, Tesla’s Elon Musk revealed the Cybercab and Cybervan, fully autonomous models lacking steering wheels, envisioned as pivotal to Tesla’s future. Musk anticipates launching a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, this coming June.
During a recent conference call with Wall Street analysts, Musk expressed optimism about expanding this service to additional cities by year’s end.
The evidence suggests a clear trend.
The Era of Autonomous Vehicles has commenced.
Is your investment portfolio prepared for this shift?
Toward a Future Dominated by Autonomous Transport
Self-driving cars are not just a concept; they are rapidly becoming a part of our daily lives. Their ascendance indicates a potential global shift where they may eventually replace human-operated vehicles, trucks, and buses.
While this transformation may seem distant, it is already being realized in cities like Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Soon, parts of Texas, Georgia, Nevada, and Florida will also adopt these technologies. Alongside technical advancements, the regulatory environment surrounding self-driving vehicles is evolving positively.
Recent reports indicate that the Trump administration aims to relax federal regulations regarding autonomous vehicles, facilitating broader deployment by companies such as Aurora, Waymo, and Tesla across the U.S.
There is a strong belief that 2025 could signify the year when self-driving cars attain mainstream acceptance.
This evolution in mobility presents substantial investment opportunities in the autonomous vehicle (AV) sector.
Key players, notably Alphabet and Tesla, are at the forefront. Alphabet owns Waymo, and Tesla is preparing to launch its own robotaxi service. If both companies successfully scale their operations, particularly in the $11 trillion market for global ride-hailing expected by 2030, then GOOGL and TSLA stocks could experience significant gains.
Nonetheless, consideration of their extensive supply chains reveals potential investment opportunities in supporting AV stocks, which may see substantial growth as self-driving technologies mainstream.
We have curated a special presentation highlighting what makes us confident in these promising investment avenues.
At the time of publication, Luke Lango held no positions in the securities mentioned in this article, either directly or indirectly.
P.S. Stay informed on Luke’s latest market analyses by following our Daily Notes! Check out the latest issue available to subscribers of both Innovation Investor and Early Stage Investor.
