Investing in Biotech: Contrarian Picks Amid Sector Weakness

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Back in October, one of the leading life sciences companies, Thermo Fisher Scientific (NYSE:TMO), gave us a lesson in the untamed world of contrarian biotech stocks. The company cautioned that the dearth in demand from the biotech sector for its services might stretch into the year 2024. Unsurprisingly, the stock market recoiled, sending TMO stock into a free fall.

But the carnage was short-lived. From that moment of despair until the end of the year, TMO’s stock swaggered up by 22.5%. Taking risks on contrarian biotech plays can be like a white-knuckle ride at a rickety amusement park. Things may be going just fine, and then bang! A disappointing clinical trial result sends the stock plunging.

Yet, the biotech sector is intrinsically tied to the noble quest to better humanity’s lot. Last year, the global biotech market reached a whopping valuation of $1.55 trillion. And by 2030, this industry is estimated to mint revenues amounting to $3.88 trillion.

If you’ve got the grit to stomach the volatility, the medical innovation space could potentially yield substantial gains. Bearing this in mind, let’s consider some contrarian biotech stocks amid the sector’s present weakness

Amgen (AMGN)

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A stalwart in the multinational biopharmaceutical arena, Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) has been at the forefront in the battle against cancer for over four decades, per the company’s website. While the market currently seems unimpressed, with AMGN stock stumbling since early February, this also means that shares are trading at just under 16 times the trailing-year earnings (sans one-time items). This is significantly better than the sector’s median of 22 times.

In the long run, the global oncology market is projected to reach $470.61 billion by 2032, showcasing an 8.8% compound annual growth rate from 2023. This sector was valued at $203.42 billion in the preceding year.

Analysts are largely upbeat, rating the shares a consensus moderate buy, with an average price target of $311.90. Additionally, the bullish case stretches to $380, offering ample room to maneuver for the patrons of contrarian biotech stocks.

Novartis (NVS)

Novartis (NVS) logo on a corporate building during daylight

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Hailing from Switzerland, the giant pharma company Novartis (NYSE:NVS) holds sway in the expansive healthcare domain. In the realm of contrarian biotech stocks, its stronghold lies in pioneering treatments for genetic disorders and rare diseases. However, NVS shares have taken a beating since late January.

While it can be unnerving to wade into stocks when they are on the ropes, NVS is currently trading at an appealing earnings multiple of under 14 times. This contrasts favorably with 72.35% of its sector peers. Moreover, Novartis boasts robust margins and consistent yearly profitability.

Furthermore, the global gene therapy market raked in $8.67 billion in revenues last year. By 2030, sector revenue could scale up to $29.51 billion, a brisk compound annual growth rate of 19.5%.

Analysts foresee an optimistic scenario with a moderate buy recommendation for NVS, with an average price target of $114. Should you seek contrarian biotech stocks at a discounted price, Novartis could be your play.

Gilead Sciences (GILD)

A Gilead Sciences (GILD) sign at the company headquarters in Silicon Valley, California.

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At first sight, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) looks like a risky bet, even within the enigmatic world of contrarian biotech stocks. With its red-streaked performance from the start of the year, GILD stock might seem like a tough sell. Moreover, the stock’s trajectory last year was akin to a rollercoaster ride. However, patience could yield rewards.

In terms of fundamentals, Gilead has long been a trailblazer in antiretroviral therapies, making a profound impact on the healthcare space. Not to mention, it stormed into the limelight with its COVID-19 treatment, Veklury, better known as Remdesivir.

The Lay of the Pharma Land: Analyzing Gilead, Bristol-Myers Squibb, AstraZeneca, and Sanofi

Gilead Sciences (GILD)

Courageously fighting the dreaded HIV, Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) stands as a bastion of hope in the pharmaceutical world. Since its inception, the company has masterfully forged a formidable arsenal, developing 11 commercial HIV medications and pushing the envelope with a pipeline of next-generation therapeutic solutions. A vital undertaking indeed, as approximately 1.2 million people in the U.S. remain ensnared by the menacing clutches of HIV. Moreover, the insidious aspect of this affliction is that 13% of those afflicted are oblivious to their condition, crying out for testing. But despite the chronic nature of this malady, Gilead’s resolve remains unwavering, positioning itself as an indomitable force for the foreseeable future.

Enlightened analysts, recognizing Gilead’s unwavering commitment, have bestowed a consensus moderate buy rating upon its shares, with an impressive price target of $86.94. And for the daring optimists, the high-side estimate soars to a tantalizing $105. With such plaudits, Gilead stands not just as a medical savior but an attractive prospect for astute investors.

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

In the crucible of pharmaceutical dynamism, Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) finds itself in a rather peculiar position. Despite an impressive quarterly performance that exceeded market expectations, the specter of generics competition has marred its 2023 journey. Make no mistake, the current landscape looks stark for Bristol Myers Squibb. However, amidst the dissonance, astute investors can discern a silver lining. A beacon for contrarian biotech enthusiasts, BMY’s shares are priced tantalizingly low at only 6.8X forward earnings, a stark contrast to the sector median of 14.7X.

Specializing in immuno-oncology, Bristol Myers Squibb’s focus on leveraging the body’s immune system to combat the ominous specter of cancer is commendable. The immuno-oncology landscape, valued at $40.74 billion in 2023, is on a trajectory to ascend to a staggering $396 billion by 2034, painting a promising vista for BMY.

Honorable analysts have deemed BMY a moderate buy, forecasting a price target of $57.79. It’s encouraging to note that the high-side estimate stretches to a commendable $90, kindling a glimmer of hope for intrepid investors that dare to embrace Bristol-Myers Squibb.

AstraZeneca (AZN)

Behemoth within the pharmaceutical realm, AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) boasts an extensive product portfolio, spanning a spectrum of diseases from oncology to cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and beyond. Despite weathering a tempestuous storm on the market throughout the year, AZN emerges as a formidable contender for contrarian biotech aficionados, bearing a forward yield of 14.41X. While not a spectacular value, it represents a marked improvement from earlier years.

Foretelling an enthralling future, AstraZeneca eyes a potential resurgence through its respiratory disease therapeutic unit. With the global lung disease therapeutics market reaching $83.4 billion last year, the future shines bright with a projected worth of $152.37 billion by 2033, signaling bountiful opportunities for AZN.

In a nod of confidence, analysts hail AstraZeneca as a consensus moderate buy, dangling a price target of $79.80. Dreamers reaching for the stars will revel in Bank of America Securities’ audacious whisper that AZN could ascend to the lofty heights of $88, rendering AstraZeneca an enchanting prospect for the contrarian-minded.

Sanofi (SNY)

A French juggernaut in the pharmaceutical and healthcare domain, Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) plants its flag in research, development, and the marketing of pharmacological products. With a broad purview that covers seven major therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, diabetes, and vaccines, the company stands as an alluring prospect for the contrarian biotech speculator.

Despite stumbling through the tumultuous terrain of 2023, Sanofi presents an alluring valuation, trading at only 10.71X forward earnings, outshining a majority of its peers. Peering into the future, Sanofi could reap bountiful rewards from the realm of diabetes care, given the ominous shadow cast by the affliction on 38.4 million Americans, constituting 11.6% of the population.

Embracing Sanofi as a beacon of promise, analysts forge a consensus moderate buy, casting a price target of $79.80. Shedding all semblance of caution, daring enthusiasts will savor the audacious forecast by Bank of America Securities, hinting at a potential peak of $88, thereby exalting Sanofi as a compelling prospect for the valiant.

Biogen Faces Uphill Battle Amidst Declining Sales and Tough Decisions

Challenges and Contrarian Outlook

Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) finds itself navigating rough waters as it grapples with plummeting sales and tough decisions. The company recently unveiled its fourth-quarter financial results, revealing a dip in sales predominantly attributed to declining multiple sclerosis (MS) product sales and one-time costs associated with discontinuing its Alzheimer’s drug Aduhelm.

Tepid Financial Results

BIIB stock: Biogen Factory Building in: Luterbach Solothurn Switzerland

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The biotech giant reported over $2.3 billion in sales for the fourth quarter, representing a 5% decline from the same period in 2022. Notably, revenue from MS products amounted to $1.1 billion, marking an 8% decrease from the previous year. In a gloomy trifecta, Biogen also admitted to experiencing demand erosion owing to rivalry from generic drugs.

Management’s Tough Decisions

The company’s management acknowledged the difficulty of discontinuing Aduhelm, emphasizing that it was a necessary albeit challenging decision. However, they expressed optimism about future revenue with new product launches in the pipeline that could steer Biogen’s financial trajectory north.

Analysts’ Take and Market Outlook

Despite the grim financial report, analysts maintain a mostly positive outlook, rating BIIB stock as a moderate buy, with a robust price target of $305.83. Further fueling optimism is the high-side target of $379, underscoring the belief that the company could regain its momentum.

With 8.7 million undiagnosed cases, suggesting a sizable market opportunity, Biogen has the potential to rebound from its current challenges. While the road ahead may be fraught with challenges, the company’s history of resilience and the progress it has made in the face of adversity should not be discounted. As with any investment, caution is warranted, but there may be light at the end of the tunnel for Biogen.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.

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