Wheat Prices Slide as Global Stocks Rise
USDA Projections Impact Market Performance
The wheat market is seeing a decline across all three exchanges at midday, following the USDA’s increase in world stocks projections. Chicago SRW futures have fallen by 8 to 9 cents. Meanwhile, KC HRW contracts are down by 9 to 10 cents, and MPLS spring wheat also shows a decrease of 8 to 9 cents.
This morning’s WASDE report indicated a reduction in the US balance sheet, with the USDA lowering old crop stocks by 6 million bushels (mbu) based on last week’s Grains Stocks report. Production estimates have also been revised downwards by 11 mbu to a total of 1.971 billion bushels (bbu), as reflected in the Small Grains Summary. Additionally, an increase of 10 mbu in feed and residual usage, along with 10 mbu more in imports, resulted in a total stock revision down by 16 mbu, bringing it to 812 mbu.
On the global front, USDA’s report detailed a 1 million metric ton (MMT) decrease in production estimates for both the European Union and Russia, while Ukrainian production is expected to increase by 0.6 MMT. Despite these changes, a larger carryover and reduced usage of 2.36 MMT, combined with lower exports, contributed to an increase in the world carryout for 2024/25 by 0.5 MMT, resulting in a new total of 257.72 MMT.
In France, 6% of the soft winter wheat crop has been planted, according to FranceAgriMer. Furthermore, SovEcon has adjusted their estimate for Russian wheat production down by another 1.4 MMT to a total of 81.5 MMT.
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat is currently priced at $5.95, down 8 3/4 cents.
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is at $6.17 3/4, reflecting a drop of 8 3/4 cents.
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat shows a price of $6.01 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents.
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is listed at $6.18 3/4, down by 9 cents.
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat is at $6.40 3/4, with a decrease of 9 1/2 cents.
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is priced at $6.62 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents.
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
