Editor’s Note: You may already know various terms that describe market trends throughout the year, such as the January Effect, “sell in May and go away,” and the Santa Claus Rally. These catchphrases highlight seasonal trends observed in the stock market. Just like certain times are ideal for harvesting crops, there are also prime times for buying and selling stocks.

Our corporate partner, TradeSmith, offers tools designed to help you pinpoint the best moments to engage with the market.

TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan hosted a live event this week demonstrating the seasonal tool and revealing a breakthrough that could potentially double your portfolio in 2025. You can catch a replay of the event here.

Today, Keith will share insights into the significance of these seasonal patterns.

Humans have an innate desire for predictability. We often turn to tools like crystal balls and tarot cards, hoping to discover what lies ahead.

Our need for predictability fuels our constant checking of weather apps as we strive for more control over our lives.

If we can anticipate future events, it may give us an advantage. This advantage could lead to better job opportunities, meaningful relationships, or financial bets that pay off handsomely.

This quest for predictability drives us to employ various strategies to gain that sought-after edge.

Many investors believe they have a grip on what the market will do next, which often leads to stock picking based on the crowd’s mentality. Unfortunately, they may end up joining the trend too late.

At TradeSmith, we have spent the last two decades developing a method that introduces a dose of predictability into the usual uncertainty of the market…

…through identifiable and recognizable seasonality patterns.

Let’s explore how this works…

Understanding Seasonal Trading

While we often look to specific catalysts—like earnings surprises or regulatory approvals—to forecast stock performance, history shows that even favorable news can lead to downturns. This turns our perceived predictability into another uncertain experience.

Identifying key seasonal patterns allows you to determine when stocks may enter phases of significant growth—sometimes down to the exact day.

Take a look at these examples:

• NVIDIA (NVDA), the chipmaker revolutionized by AI, typically shows an average increase of 7.8% over 15 days starting October 24, boasting a 100% success rate over the last 15 years.
• Monster Beverage (MNST) consistently enters a growth phase every April 14, averaging gains of 4.7% in 20 days with an 87% accuracy.
• Amazon (AMZN) averages a 4% rise over 15 days starting November 13, supported by an 86% success rate.

Instead of combing through charts on Yahoo! Finance, there’s a quicker, more accurate way to spot seasonal trends for nearly any stock—the foundation laid 20 years ago…

Proven Success Stories

TradeSmith has earned recognition for its innovative tools, including TradeStops and the new Seasonal Edge alerts, and our skilled analysts such as Mike Burnick, John Jagerson, and Wade Hansen contribute to their ongoing development.

Whether you’re a casual trader or a seasoned professional, the core challenge remains the same: making trading understandable.

Recently, our research team analyzed 33 years of market data to create a strategy that aptly identifies seasonal growth patterns in 5,000 stocks.

This approach has demonstrated an impressive 83% accuracy rate. Some investors have even reported doubling their portfolios within a year…

…by learning precisely when to enter, hold, and exit stock positions confidently.

Armed with these insights, traditional analysis methods may become obsolete. Forget the typical advice surrounding earnings reports and macroeconomic indicators—these often overlooked insights could redefine your trading strategy.

Consider the success of others who have leveraged this seasonal system:

• Ted R. expressed his satisfaction with a return of “291% on AEM, 157% on WPM, and 130% on GLD.”
• Brad K. noted earning $200,000 through TradeSmith’s recommendations.
• One retiree turned a $100,000 loss into a $59,000 gain using TradeSmith’s quantitative system!

And it all starts with a look at Walgreens (WBA), the pharmacy chain with locations all over America. While it may not spark the same excitement as NVIDIA or…

Walgreens Stock: A Seasonal Success Story

Understanding Walgreens’ Impressive Market Trends

Every year, Amazon and other major retailers experience unique seasonal patterns. Walgreens is no exception. The chart below highlights one of Walgreens’s “green days” this past year.

Between October 7 and December 16 over the last 15 years, Walgreens stock has increased 93.3% of the time, averaging a return of 9.2%. This period represents the company’s most notable seasonal growth.

In fact, 2024 was particularly remarkable, with the stock jumping from $8.61 on October 7 to $10.74 by October 16—a nearly 25% increase in just eight days!

As we move into a new year, fresh seasonal trading patterns are set to emerge.

Incorporating Seasonal Strategies in Your Investment Plans

The stock market can be unpredictable, and traditional buy-and-hold strategies may not always yield the best returns. By minimizing uncertainties, investors can make more informed trading decisions.

On January 8, I presented a live session showcasing the seasonality tool, along with a recent breakthrough that could potentially double your portfolio in 2025.

Our approach, termed Seasonal Edge, marks a significant departure from conventional investing methods. Research indicates that blindly following market trends can negatively impact returns.

For instance, our 18-year backtest demonstrates that this strategy outperformed the S&P 500 by more than double. Additionally, it successfully navigated the major downturns seen during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crash.

This visual data underscores the rationale behind my recent urgent webinar on Breakthrough 2025.

If you were unable to attend the live event, there’s good news—the replay will be accessible for a limited time.

Take action now; our Seasonal Edge system could signal new opportunities as soon as tomorrow.

Don’t delay—start 2025 with a solid investment strategy.

Sincerely,

 Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith