The Future of Quantum Computing: Caution from Industry Leaders

Quantum computing could change many areas, including drug discovery, material science, and artificial intelligence (AI). However, experts warn that its development may take longer than anticipated.

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Industry Leaders Express Concerns

Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, and Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms, have both recently shared their skeptical views on the speed of quantum computing advancements. Despite being generally optimistic about technology development, Huang offered a more reserved outlook on this front.

During Nvidia’s analyst day, he stated, “If you said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it’s probably on the safe side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it.” This caution sparked a sharp decline in the stock prices of several quantum computing companies.

Zuckerberg agreed with Huang’s perspective, conveying in an interview, “I’m not really an expert on quantum computing, but my understanding is that’s still quite a ways off from being a very useful paradigm.” He suggested that significant breakthroughs might still be at least a decade away.

The Impact on Stocks

The cautious views of these leaders led to notable drops in quantum computing stocks. For example, shares of IonQ have fallen about 45% from their peak, while D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing have suffered declines of over 50%.

One Quantum Stock Still Worth Considering

Despite the warnings from Huang and Zuckerberg, not everyone shares their views. D-Wave Quantum’s CEO, Alan Baratz, labeled Huang’s perspective as “dead wrong.” Additionally, some speculate that Huang’s comments may reflect competitive concerns for Nvidia rather than an unbiased assessment of quantum computing’s potential.

If you align with the belief that quantum computing might take time to develop, consider investing in Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL). The company’s stock didn’t experience the same downturn following the comments from Huang and Zuckerberg.

Alphabet has been a key player in the quantum computing field, particularly highlighted on December 9, 2024, when its Google Quantum AI division unveiled the Willow quantum chip. This chip delivered major improvements, cutting down error rates significantly and performing a computation in less than five minutes, a task that would take 10 septillion years for the fastest current supercomputer.

In 2019, Alphabet’s Sycamore processor also broke new ground by completing a complex calculation in 200 seconds, which Google claimed would have taken supercomputers 10,000 years. However, Google Quantum AI acknowledges that substantial work remains, believing a “useful, error-corrected quantum computer is within reach” by the end of this decade.

More than Just Quantum Computing

Alphabet’s strengths extend beyond quantum computing, making it a strong investment option irrespective of the sector’s timeline. The company leads advancements in AI through its Google unit, while Google Cloud continues to capitalize on the shift of IT spending to cloud services. Additionally, Google Search and YouTube maintain their dominance in their markets, and Waymo leads the emerging autonomous ride-hailing industry.

While quantum computing adds an exciting dimension to Alphabet’s portfolio, the company’s existing successes suggest promising potential for long-term investors.

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Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development at Facebook and a sister of Mark Zuckerberg, is on the board of The Motley Fool. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is also a board member. Keith Speights owns shares in Alphabet and Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia and has positions in those companies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Nasdaq, Inc.