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Green Plains’ Nebraska Carbon Initiative: Progress Update and Future Plans

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Green Plains Inc. Advances Carbon Strategy, Set to Begin Operations by 2025

Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) has achieved key milestones for its ‘Advantage Nebraska’ carbon strategy, paving the way for the project to start operations in the latter half of 2025. This initiative aims to be among the first in the U.S. to produce significant volumes of low-carbon ethanol using carbon capture and sequestration, enabling the company to take part in the emerging 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit.

New Model Enhances Carbon Efficiency

The newly released 45Z GREET model indicates that U.S. corn ethanol can lower its Carbon Intensity (CI) score by about 32 points through carbon capture. Additionally, the model reduces penalties related to Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) for corn, granting U.S. corn ethanol a more favorable starting CI compared to earlier models. Conversely, imported Used Cooking Oil (UCO) faces transportation penalties and cannot claim the 45Z credit if utilized for on-road fuels like biodiesel. Utilizing Renewable Corn Oil (DCO) as a feedstock for renewable diesel could deliver a 25-point CI advantage over soybean oil.

Positive Outlook for Carbon Capture Initiatives

Green Plains is steadily approaching operational status across its 287 million-gallon capacity in Nebraska. The company is well-positioned to sequester biogenic carbon dioxide and potentially reduce the CI of its ethanol by more than half. With the recent guidance on the 45Z credits, GPRE is more convinced than ever that its “Advantage Nebraska” plan will be successful.

Future Goals for Carbon Sequestration

GPRE plans to permanently sequester 800,000 tons of biogenic carbon dioxide annually starting later this year from its Central City, Wood River, and York facilities. The company’s compression equipment is designed to support scaling for both current production needs and future carbon capture endeavors, with an overall capacity of up to 1.2 million tons per year.

Market Performance and Industry Comparison

Over the past year, Green Plains’ shares have decreased by 49.6%, in contrast to a 17.1% decline in its industry.

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Current Stock Ranking and Alternatives

Currently, GPRE holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Other well-performing stocks in the basic materials sector include Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS), Sylvamo Corporation (SLVM), and ICL Group Ltd (ICL).

Carpenter Technology, rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), has consistently exceeded estimates for the past four quarters with an average earnings surprise of 14.1%, and its shares have surged 207.1% in the last year. Sylvamo also holds a Zacks Rank #1 and has achieved a 61.2% increase in share value over the same period.

Moreover, ICL Group has seen its current-year earnings estimates rise by 8.8% in the last 60 days and maintains a Zacks Rank #1, with a notable 31.6% share price increase in the past year.

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Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS): Free Stock Analysis Report

Green Plains, Inc. (GPRE): Free Stock Analysis Report

ICL Group Ltd. (ICL): Free Stock Analysis Report

Sylvamo Corporation (SLVM): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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