Soybean Market Faces Decline Amid Tariff Concerns

Soybeans experienced a notable sell-off on Friday, with front-month contracts dropping 11 to 13 cents. The March lows hit 28 cents (2.69%) this week. The national front-month cash soybean price decreased by 12 ¼ cents, settling at $9.55. In contrast, soymeal futures rose by 80 cents per ton after a decline of $3.10 over the week. Soy oil futures fell significantly, losing 122 points on Friday, with March futures down 328 points (-7.01%) this week. These shifts in the market coincide with President Trump’s announcement of a forthcoming 10% tariff on China starting next week.

Insurance Pricing and Market Commitments

The average closing price for November soybeans throughout February was $10.54. This figure serves as the base crop insurance price for the current year. It marks a $1.01 drop from the previous year’s spring price, setting a 5-year low.

Speculator Activity and Export Reports

According to reports, speculators reduced their net long positions in soybean futures and options by 8,317 contracts as of February 25. This brings the total net long to 8,209 contracts on the following Tuesday. Additionally, the USDA announced a private export sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil for shipment in the 2024/25 marketing year.

The latest weekly export sales report indicated that the marketing year’s export commitments for soybeans total 44.147 MMT. This figure represents 89% of the USDA’s forecast for the marketing year and aligns with the average sales pace. Current marketing year shipments stand at 37.009 MMT, accounting for 75% of the USDA’s export projections and are consistent with typical patterns.

Upcoming Reports and Stock Projections

Looking ahead of the Monday afternoon Fats & Oils report, analysts expect the January crush total to be around 211.1 mbu. Bean oil stocks are estimated to reach 1.761 billion lbs at the end of January.

Latest Soybean Market Prices

Mar 25 Soybeans closed at $10.11 1/2, reflecting a decrease of 11 1/4 cents.

Nearby Cash was recorded at $9.54, down 12 1/4 cents.

May 25 Soybeans finished at $10.25 3/4, down by 11 1/2 cents.

Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.29 1/2, also down 12 1/4 cents.

New Crop Cash stood at $9.64, decreasing by 12 1/2 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data provided herein are for informational purposes only. For further details, please consult the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.