Soybean Market Experiences Mixed Performance Amid Export Growth

The soybean market exhibited mixed movement this week, particularly between old and new crop contracts. Nearby contracts decreased by 2 to 4 cents, while new crop months rose by 4 to 5 cents. The May contract fell by ¾ cent over the week, with November slipping off 4 cents. Notably, the cmdtyView national front month Cash Bean price declined by 2 ¼ cents, settling at $9.60 ½. Soymeal futures faced a drop of $40 to $60 per ton in nearby contracts, contrasted by a $4.20 increase in the May future. In comparison, Soy Oil futures were higher by 27 points in the front months, but ultimately fell 70 points over the week.

Traders Positioning Shifts as Commitments Change

According to the Commitment of Traders data, speculators shifted back to a net short position, with a change of 43,696 contracts for a total net short of 35,487 contracts.

Export Commitments Continue to Climb

This week’s Weekly Export Sales data revealed total soybean export commitments at 44.386 MMT, marking a 13% increase compared to the same week last year. This figure accounts for 89% of the USDA’s export projection for the marketing year, aligning with the average sales pace.

Upcoming USDA Report May Impact Markets

The USDA’s WASDE report is scheduled for release on Tuesday. Traders anticipate that there will be no significant revisions to the U.S. carryout estimate, projected at 379 million bushels (mbu).

Brazilian Market Trends

Brazilian producers are currently ahead in sales, with Safras & Mercado estimating that 42.4% of the 2024/25 soybean crop has been sold, compared to 36.6% at this time last year. February exports from Brazil totaled 6.43 MMT, representing a decrease of 6.61 MMT from the previous year.

Chinese Import Data Reflects Yearly Increase

During the months of January and February, Chinese soybean imports reached 13.61 MMT, reflecting an increase of 0.61 MMT from the same timeframe in the previous year.

Current Pricing Overview

As of March 25, the following are the closing prices for soybeans:

• Mar 25 Soybeans: closed at $10.10 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,
• Nearby Cash: was $9.60 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents,
• May 25 Soybeans: closed at $10.25, down 2 1/4 cents,
• Nov 25 Soybeans: closed at $10.25 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents,
• New Crop Cash: was $9.61 1/1, down 3 1/2 cents.

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not hold (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. For further details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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