Wheat Futures Experience Declines, Export Commitments Remain Robust

Wheat prices retreated on Friday across all three major exchanges. Chicago SRW futures recorded losses ranging from 2 to 3 cents, with May futures down 4 ½ cents for the week. In the Kansas City (KC) market, HRW futures were lower by a fraction of a penny in the nearby contracts, with May down 8 ¼ cents since last Friday. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat dropped between 1 to 3 cents in the front months, concluding with a 5-cent loss for May on the week.

Traders Adjust Positions as Commitment Report Shows Increased Short Positions

The latest Commitment of Traders report revealed that managed money holds a net short position in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat totaling 82,399 contracts, which indicates an increase of 14,785 contracts from the previous week. In the KC wheat market, short positions were raised by 17,947 contracts, now totaling 39,282 contracts as of Tuesday.

Export Commitments and Upcoming Reports Influence Market Dynamics

Eleven percent higher than the same period last year, total wheat export commitments reached 20.484 million metric tons (MMT) as of February 27. This figure represents 89% of the USDA’s projected wheat export figure, though it lags behind the average pace of 97% for export sales.

Traders are anticipating the upcoming monthly WASDE report from the USDA, expected to be released on Tuesday. Analysts predict no significant changes to the US ending stocks projection, with the average estimate sitting at 797 million bushels (mbu), reflecting a 3 mbu increase from last month.

Additionally, Japan secured 94,282 metric tons of wheat from the USA, Australia, and Canada in their latest tender, with 35,882 MT sourced specifically from the US. In Europe, the ratings for French soft wheat improved to 73% good/excellent, rising by 1% from the previous week.

Wheat Futures Closing Prices

As for the closing prices on March 25:

• CBOT Wheat: $5.33 3/4, up 3 cents
• May CBOT Wheat: $5.51 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents
• KCBT Wheat: $5.51 1/4, down 1/4 cent
• May KCBT Wheat: $5.64 3/4, down 1 cent
• MGEX Wheat: $5.78, up 5 1/2 cents
• May MGEX Wheat: $5.92 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.