S&P 500 Up Slightly Amid Tariff Concerns and Economic Data

In afternoon trading, the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) rose by +0.01%, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell by -0.53%. In contrast, the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) increased by +0.64%.

Market Movements and Economic Data

Earlier today, stock indexes were lower, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials slipping to their lowest points in over five months. The decline came after President Trump announced his intention to raise tariffs on U.S. imports of steel and aluminum from Canada to 50%, up from 25%. This decision follows Ontario’s 25% export tariff on electricity supplied to the U.S. Additionally, Trump warned of further tariff increases on Canadian products if dairy tariffs do not change.

Despite hitting lows, the indexes managed to rally later in the afternoon. Investor sentiment improved following Bloomberg’s report that President Trump will be meeting with the Business Roundtable, including prominent U.S. business executives, later today. Furthermore, a rebound in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks also contributed to the market’s recovery.

Today’s U.S. economic data revealed improvements in the labor market. January JOLTS job openings increased by +232,000 to reach 7.74 million, outperforming expectations of no change at 7.60 million.

Sector Performances

Leading the decline among telecommunications, Verizon Communications is down over -6%, impacting the Dow Jones Industrials. Likewise, Delta Air Lines has fallen more than -7% after revising its Q1 profit outlook downward due to declining travel demand.

Overall, stocks have faced pressure this past week amid growing concerns that U.S. tariffs may provoke a global trade war. Last Tuesday, President Trump initiated 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, while increasing tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 20%. Although he temporarily exempted U.S. automakers and compliant goods from Canada and Mexico from these tariffs, he reiterated plans for reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

Upcoming Economic Indicators

This week, market focus will shift to the February U.S. CPI report, which analysts expect to show a slight decline to +2.9% year-over-year from January’s +3.0%. The core CPI for February is anticipated to ease to +3.2% from +3.3% in January. Furthermore, U.S. trade policies, particularly the implementation of the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, will be closely monitored. On Thursday, the February final-demand PPI is expected to dip to +3.2% from +3.5% in January, while Friday’s report from the University of Michigan is predicted to show a decline in the March consumer sentiment index by -1.2 to 63.5.

With a looming March 15 deadline, market attention will also be directed toward Congress’s efforts to approve a spending bill and avert a government shutdown. Currently, the markets estimate only a 4% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 18-19.

International Market Overview

Overseas markets displayed mixed performances today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell by -1.36% to its lowest point in a month, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed up by +0.41%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 also dropped to a five-month low, closing down -0.64%.

Interest Rates Analysis

June 10-year T-notes (ZNM25) gained +2 ticks, with the yield on the 10-year T-note decreasing by -1.3 basis points to 4.200%. T-notes rebounded from early losses as stocks retreated following Trump’s tariff announcements, alongside falling inflation expectations which resulted in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reaching a three-month low of 2.265%. However, T-note prices encountered initial declines due to stronger-than-expected U.S. job openings data.

European bond yields also saw an uptick, with the 10-year German bund yield rising by +3.4 basis points to 2.867% and the 10-year UK gilt yield increasing by +0.6 basis points to 4.650%.

Market swaps are projecting a 51% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the ECB in the upcoming April 17 policy meeting.

Today’s Notable Stock Movements

The Magnificent Seven stocks are experiencing a recovery today, with Tesla (TSLA) up more than +3% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +2%. Other notable increases include Amazon.com (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), which all gained more than +1%.

Travel stocks, however, faced significant pressure, particularly Delta Air Lines (DAL), which plummeted by -8% after revisiting its Q1 earnings forecast significantly downward. Other travel-related stocks such as Marriott International (MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) fell more than -4%.

Telecommunication stocks suffered, with Verizon Communications leading the decline, down -6%, and making adverse impacts on the Dow Jones Industrials. AT&T (T) and T-Mobile US (TMUS) followed suit with losses exceeding -3%.

Chip stocks also dragged the market down, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) leading the sector declines with a drop of over -7%. ON Semiconductor (ON) fell by more than -4%, and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Microchip Technology (MCHP), and Texas Instruments (TXN) followed with losses exceeding -3%.

Teradyne (TER) stands out with a sharp decline of over -17% after adjusting its revenue forecast to flat to down -10% quarter-over-quarter.

Oracle (ORCL) is down more than -5% after revealing that its Q3 adjusted revenue fell short of expectations at $14.13 billion, compared to the expected $14.39 billion. Kohl’s (KSS) forecasted a significant drop in comparable sales this year by -6%, much worse than the anticipated -0.55% decline.

On the other hand, Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) decreased by more than -4% after reporting a Q2 adjusted operating profit of $455 million, under the expected $485.1 million.

Cybersecurity stocks are ascending today, buoyed by Elon Musk’s announcement regarding a cyberattack on X that caused intermittent outages. Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) increased by more than +7%, while Zscaler (ZS), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Fortinet (FTNT) saw gains more than +4%, +3%, and +2%, respectively.

In a positive turn, Southwest Airlines (LUV) surged by over +6% after expediting its $2.5 billion share repurchase program completion to July 2025 and having announced the end of its free checked-bag policy.

Additionally, GE Healthcare (GEHC) is up more than +2% after receiving an upgrade from Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral, with a price target set at $100. Elevance Health (ELV) also experienced growth of more than +2% after predicting a full-year adjusted EPS range of $34.15-$34.85, with the midpoint surpassing analysts’ expectations of $34.45.

ASML Holding NV (ASML) rose by over +1% after formalizing a five-year strategic partnership agreement with Imec, aimed at the development of advanced nodes utilizing ASML systems.

Earnings Reports (3/11/2025)

Upcoming earnings reports include Casey’s General Stores Inc (CASY), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS), Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG), and Kohl’s Corp (KSS).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data within this article are solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.