# Analyzing Okta’s Market Cap: Insights from Industry Experts

In an engaging conversation about market capitalizations, David Gardner and Bill Barker discussed Okta, ticker symbol OKTA, which has shown promising results recently. As of one o’clock, Barker provided a market cap range for Okta of between $27 billion to $42 billion.

Emily Flippen: When it comes to Okta, I find it a bit of a mixed bag. While I appreciate the security it offers our systems—and as an investor, I regard the business positively—I do wish the authentication process was less cumbersome. Having to locate my phone for access can be a bit frustrating, especially when it misplaces itself more often than I would like to admit.

David Gardner: Thank you for that, Emily. Considering Bill’s hinted market cap range of $27 to $42 billion, do you align with that estimate or take a different stance?

Emily Flippen: My current challenge stems from the broader market downturn. Okta’s market cap has indeed fluctuated within that range, especially after a strong quarterly report a couple of weeks back, where the stock surged 20-25%. Despite this, I personally believe the market cap might be lower than that range. Thus, I’ll go with a smaller figure here, even if it poses a risk for disagreement.

David Gardner: You’ve made your choice, and players at home are listening. Did Emily correctly challenge Bill’s range? To clarify, Bill wasn’t too far off, but at the low end of his range, he was 50% higher than the current market cap of Okta, which stands at $18.81 billion. While Bill’s estimates were reasonable, they definitely spanned higher than reality today. For context, Okta once traded in that higher range during its peak in 2021—when it hit nearly $300 a share. Today, it hovers around the $100 mark, indicative of a significant decline. It’s essential to understand these shifts in market cap dynamics.

Bill Barker: I wasn’t very confident in my estimate, to be honest. [laughs] I haven’t closely tracked Okta’s performance, but I’ve been aware of its ups and downs, and it has experienced a turbulent market history. While it has seen some recovery, it has yet to approach its extraordinary highs from 2021.

David Gardner: The stock briefly dipped below $50 a while ago but currently stands around $100 per share. I first selected it for Stock Advisor at $29.18 on January 19, 2018. It soared to around $250 during much of 2021, but it clearly demonstrates that market values can fluctuate dramatically. For Rule Breaker investors, it payed dividends. After first picking it up at $29, I reintroduced it at $42 three months later. It was a timely decision as it almost reached a 50% increase rapidly. In hindsight, a valuable lesson on market behavior. Also, here’s an intriguing fact about Okta: the name originates from a meteorological term, signifying its role in connecting users securely with cloud services.

Emily Flippen: I wasn’t aware of that. Interesting!

Bill Barker: I wasn’t either! That’s insightful.

David Gardner: Furthermore, Okta’s annual reports reveal that common passwords remain notoriously weak, with “123456” still topping the list. This emphasizes the need for services like Okta to provide enhanced security despite our recurring poor password choices. Before we move on to the second stock, the score currently stands at Emily: one, Bill: nothing.

David Gardner: Emily Flippen, an advisor at The Fool, plays a crucial role in leading the Stock Advisor team by performing fundamental research on various companies. Aside from her professional career, Emily gained recognition as a co-star on Season 45 of Survivor and has shared her lighter experiences in training her cats. Notably, during her last appearance on the Market Cap Game Show in December, she got married that very afternoon. Welcome back, Emily!

Emily Flippen: Thank you for having me. It’s great to be back.

David Gardner: How has married life been treating you?

Emily Flippen: So far, it’s been quite similar to how it was before! Honestly, I’m glad to report that things haven’t changed too much, which is precisely what I hoped for.

David Gardner: Finding someone great and knowing them for a long time before diving into marriage is commendable.

Emily Flippen: Some may argue I took my time—my mother surely would concur.

David Gardner: [laughs] If you could summon a car right now and go anywhere, where would you choose to go?

Emily Flippen: As I’m still hungry and have yet to eat lunch, idealistically I’d choose Texas, heading straight to Whataburger. That was my initial thought!

David Gardner: Quite an expensive ride-sharing fare if you attempt an Uber from here to Texas just for Whataburger!

Emily Flippen: Yes, but I’d say it might be worth the investment.

David Gardner: It sounds like an interesting concept for a reality show: driving thousands of miles just for your favorite meal! Speaking of food delivery, let’s pivot to our second stock: Uber Technologies, ticker symbol UBER. Emily, do you frequently order food delivery?

Emily Flippen: While I want to uphold the image of a home-cook, the truth is I have been known to indulge in the conveniences of food delivery, more often than I willingly want to confess.

David Gardner: Food delivery services really do make life easier. How often do you find yourself turning to Uber Eats for your meals?

Emily Flippen: I…

Analyzing Uber and Western Alliance Bancorp Market Cap Estimates

In a light discussion about food delivery services, Emily Flippen revealed her frequent use of Uber Eats, despite often choosing cheaper alternatives linked to other delivery apps like DoorDash and Grubhub. Cost-conscious about food delivery options, she opts for the most affordable service available.

David Gardner: That’s great. Let’s get straight to it. Emily, what is your estimate for Uber Technologies’ market cap?

Emily Flippen: I might be overestimating based on my own consumption, but I believe Uber is valued at over $100 billion. Given the share price performance and increasing profitability, I estimate the market cap to be between $145 billion and $170 billion.

David Gardner: So, you estimate it at $145 billion to $170 billion. Bill, are you a user of Uber?

Bill Barker: Yes, I use Uber, but not Uber Eats. Normally, we prepare all of our meals at home.

David Gardner: Of course, you would. Are you a frequent user of Uber rides as well?

Bill Barker: Not really. I usually drive myself.

David Gardner: It gets you where you need to go.

Bill Barker: Exactly.

David Gardner: Emily put Uber’s market cap between $145 billion and $170 billion. Bill, do you agree or disagree with that range?

Bill Barker: I have to disagree. While there has been some recovery in profitability after changes in management, including the departure of the founder and the appointment of a new CEO, I believe the company hasn’t yet regained its market cap from its peak years.

David Gardner: Bill disagrees. How about you, players at home? Are you locked in too? Bill, it sounds like you should have agreed. Emily’s estimate was pretty close. Uber’s actual market cap is around $148.63 billion, fitting well within Emily’s range.

Emily Flippen: That was close.

David Gardner: Uber has performed well, rising from a low of $20 in 2022 to approximately $70 today. This growth has tripled the company’s market value in under three years, and it’s currently supported by five different Motley Fool services. All positions are profitable. Do either of you own shares of this stock?

Bill Barker: No.

Emily Flippen: Not directly, but I might own it indirectly through other investments.

David Gardner: That’s a possibility. Emily, you have scored two points, while Bill remains scoreless.

Bill Barker: I’m already in a hole.

David Gardner: This is unusual for you, but I know you’ll come back. Now, let’s move on to Stock Number 3. Bill Barker, have you ever been to Las Vegas?

Bill Barker: Yes, I have.

David Gardner: What prompted your visit?

Bill Barker: The usual reasons—primarily for business. I attended an analyst meeting a while ago.

David Gardner: Do you enjoy Las Vegas?

Bill Barker: I like it in moderation.

David Gardner: I can relate. My visits were enjoyable, although I haven’t been back in eight or nine years. Each time felt a bit different, transitioning from a more gritty vibe to something closer to a family-friendly atmosphere.

Bill Barker: I agree; that transformation has been their goal.

David Gardner: Bill, have you ever visited Phoenix?

Bill Barker: No, but I have flown into the city.

David Gardner: Considering the trend of Americans moving southwest, Phoenix is certainly growing, as is Las Vegas, which can expand into the surrounding desert. The relevance of these cities comes from a company founded in Las Vegas in 1994 that relocated to Phoenix in 2010. Speaking of which, have you ever witnessed a bank stock lose 80% of its value in just one week?

Bill Barker: I can’t recall an exact incident, but there were definitely tense moments back in ’08 when several institutions faced dire situations.

David Gardner: That’s correct, as seen with Lehman Brothers. You’ve experienced the ups and downs of the market. Now let’s talk about Western Alliance Bancorp, ticker symbol WAL, a company that experienced such dramatic stock fluctuations. Bill, is this a company you’ve ever analyzed?

Bill Barker: I hope you’re just playing around, and you’ll mention a company I have some knowledge of.

David Gardner: That’s certainly part of the fun! The ticker symbol often gets mixed up with Walmart, leading potential investors astray. This company, although founded first in 1994, likely faces daily confusion due to its ticker.

Bill Barker: Those investors would likely regret landing on this stock instead of Walmart, given its reputation.

David Gardner: We will uncover more about it. Bill, it’s your turn to estimate. What is your projected market cap range for Western Alliance Bancorp?

Bill Barker: I will take a shot and say between $2 billion and $7 billion.

David Gardner: That’s quite a range! Emily, have you researched this stock?

Emily Flippen: Yes, I have looked into it quite a bit, actually, which shapes my thoughts on it.

Western Alliance Bancorp Faces Challenges Amid Market Volatility

Currently, Western Alliance Bancorp finds itself in the Stock Advisor penalty box. This decision followed liquidity concerns linked to the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis.

Performance Overview and Market Response

David Gardner: You’re right to point that out. Emily is well-informed. I admit my knowledge of Western Alliance isn’t extensive. My brother Tom initially selected it for Stock Advisor eight years ago, and while it’s since appreciated in value, its overall performance has been lackluster. The anxiety surrounding Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse is one reason for this scrutiny. Emily, can you confirm Bill’s estimate of 2 billion to 7 billion, or do you have a different perspective?

Emily Flippen: I’m quite uncertain but acknowledge it’s currently in our Stock Advisor penalty box. If pressed for a figure, I believe a range of around 2.5 billion comes to mind. Although it might be smaller, for consistency with my initial thought, I’ll side with Bill’s range.

Estimates and Current Valuation

David Gardner: So, we have a consensus. Emily, you’re set on agreeing with Bill, even if you might have been tempted to disagree. It’s worth noting that Bill offered a broad estimate for a small-cap bank, saying 2 billion to 7 billion. However, Western Alliance Bancorp’s true market cap stands at 8.09 billion, slightly over Bill’s upper range. For our viewers at home, if you sided with Bill, that gives Flippen a score of 2 and Barker a score of 1.

Bill Barker: Honestly, this isn’t exactly a win when the range is close enough to mislead someone into a mistake.

David Gardner: That’s often the nature of the game, Bill. This bank has been on our Stock Advisor watchlist for several years. There was a striking moment when its share price plummeted from $75 to 15 due to issues resurfacing around Silicon Valley Bank. Were you tracking the situation around Silicon Valley Bank back then, Emily?

Market Dynamics and Institutional Response

Emily Flippen: While I wasn’t focusing on that specific stock, the incident had widespread implications for the market. Any financial institution, regardless of its size, felt the tremors. Western Alliance Bancorp was particularly affected, prompted our Stock Advisor team to reevaluate liquidity management amidst fears of a potential bank run. The ongoing concern over the company’s capital management keeps it in the penalty box.

David Gardner: Small-cap banks have been under scrutiny ever since.

Bill Barker: I still remember the moment I first learned about the Silicon Valley news. I was just finishing up on the tennis court when I noticed it had dropped significantly after hours. It was surreal to witness the impact unfold over the following days.

Broader Concerns and Recovery Trajectory

David Gardner: A historical note: our own firm had significant exposure to Silicon Valley Bank. Our CFO and finance team worked tirelessly over a hectic weekend to ensure our funds were secure, which thankfully they were. This experience has made us more cautious today. It’s essential to remember that trust in banks can erode quickly, influencing financial landscapes broadly. Now, back to Western Alliance Bancorp, I’m pleased to report that its stock has shown resilience and doubled in value over the past year, aligning with its adjusted market cap of approximately $8.9 billion.

Stock Insights: Emerging Industry Leaders

Now, let’s discuss Stock number 4, Emily. The first and crucial trait of Rule Breakers stocks is being a leader in an emerging industry. Which companies do you believe fit this description and are poised to outperform over the next decade?

Emily Flippen: It’s difficult to narrow it down, but I think of major players like Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla. Each of these companies saw incredible success due to visionary leadership that identified opportunities early on. I also consider Pure Storage, a company leading the charge in flash memory storage, as one that could emerge as a top contender in this important sector.

Identifying Industry Pioneers

David Gardner: Thank you, Emily. When we talk about companies that fundamentally started their respective industries, could you point out a few notable examples?

Emily Flippen: Absolutely, a classic example is Tesla, which has transformed the automotive industry.

David Gardner: Great point! I’d add Uber to that list, potentially Intuitive Surgical, and Netflix as innovators in their fields. Some of the most notable stocks in our portfolio are those that pioneered new industries. One iconic example is Amgen, founded in 1980. Its groundbreaking drug EPOGEN revolutionized treatment for patients with anemia. Emily, considering Amgen’s notable market impact, what do you estimate its market cap to be?

Emily Flippen: I’ve got no hesitations; it’s a remarkable company.

Amgen’s Financial Growth and Market Position Discussed

During a recent discussion, Bill, David, and Emily delved into Amgen’s performance and market presence. David shared that Amgen, a key player in biotechnology, has demonstrated considerable diversification over the years. Transitioning the conversation, he brought attention to Amgen’s significant products, particularly the blockbuster drug EPOGEN, primarily used for red blood cell production in patients with anemia and those undergoing dialysis. David also mentioned Neupogen, indicating Amgen’s expansive portfolio of similar solutions.

Emily Flippen: “Doesn’t that sound like a big opportunity to you? It sounds like a big opportunity to me.” She expressed confidence in Amgen’s future, estimating its market value between $150 billion and $183 billion.

David Gardner: “That’s an ambitious range, Emily. Bill, what’s your take on her estimate?”

Bill Barker: “I wish I had been an Amgen shareholder for many years. Emily’s estimate is tight, and although it gives me pause, I think it’s too high.” He disagreed with the valuation range, indicating skepticism about reaching that figure at this moment.

David Gardner: “Amgen is currently valued at $171.50 billion as of 1:00 PM on Tuesday, March 11. I initially picked it for Stock Advisor back in June 2018, and since then, it has gained 75%. However, it has lagged behind the market, which increased by 105% in the same timeframe. Given its historical significance and the original Fool portfolio, which included other giants like AOL and Amazon, holding onto Amgen could be beneficial for long-term investors.” David recalled that Amgen has consistently been a player in the biotech field for about 45 years, originally under the name Applied Molecular Genetics, and still operates from its base in Thousand Oaks, California.

Emily Flippen: “Unfortunately, I haven’t visited Thousand Oaks, but it sounds lovely.”

Bill Barker: “I know someone who lives there but haven’t had the chance to explore myself.”

Shifting topics, David asked Bill about his pastimes besides investing. Bill shared that he enjoys racket sports and, as always, follows the New York Yankees.

David Gardner: “The Yankees have certainly had their ups and downs this spring. What’s going on?”

Bill Barker: “It’s been tough; Garrett Cole is out for Tommy John surgery, which is certainly a setback.”

Returning to a familiar subject, David inquired about Bill’s long-standing interest in lawn tennis.

Bill Barker: “Yes, lawn tennis is my term of choice, even if it’s not the most common one today.”

Curious about Bill’s competitive history, David invited him to share more about his achievements in the sport.

Bill Barker: “I have competed at a high level in age division categories.”

David Gardner: “Given your talent, I bet if I searched for you or your son’s name in the context of court tennis, I’d uncover some impressive results.”

Bill Barker: “You might find a tournament or two mentioned if you look closely.”

As their conversation continued, David redirected their focus toward Six Flags Entertainment Corp., now trading under the ticker symbol FUN following its merger with Cedar Fair. Noting Bill’s previous experiences as a consumer rather than an employee of the amusement industry, he asked about Bill’s valuation for Six Flags.

Bill Barker: “Given its struggles, I’m cautious with my estimate for Six Flags. After merging with Cedar Fair, I’m looking at a market cap range of $2 billion to $7 billion.”

David Gardner: “That’s a prudent approach. Emily, do you enjoy visiting amusement parks?”

Emily Flippen: “They’re one of my favorites! Getting someone to join me is the challenge, though.”

David Gardner: “Is your husband a tough sell for these trips?”

Emily Flippen: “Definitely! He claims he has eye problems that make the rides an issue, but I’ve never pressed him to explain further. I suspect he simply isn’t a fan.”

David Gardner: “I’d gladly accompany you on a trip to the park! I enjoy roller coasters but tend to avoid the spinny rides.”

Emily Flippen: “I love the thrill of anything that gets my heart racing, but waiting in long lines for short rides is frustrating.”

Ultimately, what remains apparent is the ongoing discussions and analyses around investment opportunities such as Amgen and Six Flags, reflecting the financial realities and personal interests they each hold.

Market Cap Insights: Six Flags and Rocket Lab USA in Focus

David Gardner: Well said, Bill. Bill Barker has stated a market cap range of $2 billion to $7 billion for this company. Emily, you’re currently leading 3-1. This could be a pivotal moment in this week’s Market Cap Game Show. Players at home, Emily Flippen, will you agree with Bill’s estimate of $2 to $7 billion or disagree?

Emily Flippen: One key point to note from the podcast is the quiet confidence emanating from Bill at the moment.

David Gardner: As he quietly sips his coffee, he appears quite composed. I must admit, he does seem calm, Bill.

Bill Barker: Given the amount of coffee I’ve consumed today, my projected calmness is higher than most could manage.

Emily Flippen: While I lack clarity on this one, I sense there may be indirect clues to consider. I’ll opt for the safe route again and agree with Bill.

David Gardner: Emily has chosen to agree. Players at home, what are your thoughts? If you also agreed, you’re correct. Bill was fairly generous with his estimate, and the actual value falls in the middle at about $3.5 billion. This puts the score at Emily 4, Bill 1. You were spot on, Bill, showing calm and wisdom, even if you don’t generally enjoy leisure activities.

Emily Flippen: I do appreciate Bill’s broad estimate.

Bill Barker: To provide context, the last time I paid attention to Six Flags, the market cap was below $2 billion, so it had clearly struggled. The merger with Cedar Fair led me to believe it was performing better than before.

David Gardner: The merger occurred on July 1 last year. At that moment, the stock was priced around $60 per share, but it has since dropped to about $34. This decline follows a period of otherwise mediocre performance leading up to that merger. For those of us who have followed the company, it’s worth noting that Salim Basle, formerly of Middleby, became the CEO of Six Flags with the aim of turning it around before opting to merge.

Bill Barker: Did Daniel Snyder play a role in damaging the company previously?

David Gardner: Indeed, the former owner of the Washington Commanders isn’t usually well-regarded around here.

Bill Barker: Am I correct in this recollection?

David Gardner: You might be right, though I haven’t followed that history much. However, the newly merged company is quite significant. Emily, as you noted, it operates 51 properties today, including 27 amusement parks, 15 water parks, and 9 resorts, with its headquarters based in Charlotte, North Carolina. I declare halftime: the score is Emily 4, Bill 1. This session’s outcome mirrors a prior game where Matt Argersinger overcame a 4-1 deficit to take the lead. You never know what could happen.

For halftime this year, we’re doing something special. As I shared earlier, my new book, Rule Breaker Investing, is now available for pre-order. This book encapsulates three decades of lessons learned in stock picking. Each week, up to the book’s launch this summer, I’ll share excerpts from it. Let’s dive into a random excerpt for halftime entertainment. Here’s a glimpse from Chapter 14: “The biggest driver of portfolio purpose hinges on new money coming in or not. In my terms, is it an odyssey or a Phoenix?” If you want to pre-order my definitive guide on stock picking, just type Rule Breaker Investing into Amazon or Barnes & Noble. Thank you to all those who have pre-ordered; it means a lot.

Now, back to the game. The current score at halftime is Emily 4, Bill 1. Let’s proceed to Stock Number 6. Emily, since we’re discussing amusement parks, have you ever visited Disney and experienced Space Mountain?

Emily Flippen: I did, as a child. I rode Space Mountain, but my memories of the experience aren’t vivid. Interestingly, the rides that have stuck in my mind are that one and the Tower of Terror.

David Gardner: I’ve been on both rides as well, and the Tower of Terror is quite a thrill, launching you upwards suddenly and exposing you to a breathtaking drop from heights that can be startling.

Emily Flippen: It certainly is! I think that experience sparked my love for extreme rides.

David Gardner: Did you happen to visit Epcot at any time?

Emily Flippen: I hadn’t gone as a child, but I recently made my first visit to Epcot in January with friends.

David Gardner: Did you go on Mission Space?

Emily Flippen: We did go on that ride.

David Gardner: Mission Space is fantastic! Speaking of space, let’s discuss our sixth stock today—Rocket Lab USA, ticker symbol RKLB. This company is engaged in satellite launches and various space-related activities. Emily, is this a stock you’ve assessed before?

Emily Flippen: I have never looked into it previously.

David Gardner: Well, let’s engage with Rocket Lab. For investors, think of the thrill of space as akin to the excitement of Mission Space. First off, what is your projected market cap range for Rocket Lab USA, ticker symbol RKLB?

# Analysts Discuss Rocket Lab’s Market Value in Latest Game Show

Emily Flippen: I initially planned to discuss Rocket Lab’s market value with quiet confidence. However, your inquiry about my familiarity with the company prompted a shift in strategy. Launching rockets, as Rocket Lab does, must be a capital-heavy operation; I suspect its full scale is greater than I realize. The current market trend is downward, and the costs associated with space travel are substantial. Therefore, I’m estimating Rocket Lab’s market capitalization to be between $6.5 billion and $10 billion.

David Gardner: You’ve suggested a range of $6.5 billion to $10 billion. I appreciate your thoughtful process, Emily. It adds depth to our discussion, and it allows for some potential deception in strategy as you engage with Bill. Would you like to tease him in a way we might not fully perceive?

Emily Flippen: If that’s my intention, I believe I deserve some credit. However, it often reveals how far off my estimates can be when I’m incorrect.

David Gardner: Fortunately, that has not happened in this week’s discussions yet. Bill, have you researched Rocket Lab?

Bill Barker: No, I have not.

David Gardner: I haven’t delved into it either. Our colleague, Yasir Al Shimi, selected this stock for Motley Fool. It’s interesting to follow, and it’s worth noting it has nothing to do with my harrowing experience on the Mission: Space ride at Disney, which we’ll explore shortly. So let’s return to Rocket Lab. Emily estimates its market cap to be between $6.5 billion and $10 billion. Bill, do you agree or disagree with Emily?

Bill Barker: I’ve disagreed with Emily in every instance before, though she’s proven correct every time. I’m either falling for a trap or misplaying my hand entirely. In a bid to change the momentum, I will agree with Emily this time.

David Gardner: Noted; we’ll keep an eye on that momentum swing. Players at Home, do you agree with Bill about Emily’s estimate of $6.5 to $10 billion? Bill’s fortunes are turning; the score stands at four to two, plus one for Bill, since Rocket Lab’s market capitalization is currently $7.99 billion. Emily, your estimation was remarkably close to the midpoint.

Emily Flippen: Ironically, I consider that range the biggest guess I’ve made today. I’m pleased Bill gave me the benefit of the doubt.

Bill Barker: I’d question referring to it as a guess. I prefer to think of all our estimates as educated rather than the uninformed guesses I might throw out.

David Gardner: That classic humility from Bill is noted. Yasir Al Shimi selected this stock when it was priced at $4 per share in July 2023, and it has now increased to $17. This selection demonstrates the stock’s strong performance. Rocket Lab considers itself an end-to-end space company, offering reliable launch services, satellite components, and space asset management. The space industry is poised for significant growth over the next fifty to one hundred years, suggesting its relevance will only increase. Rocket Lab appears to be aligned with this disruptive potential, though volatility is expected as the industry matures.

Reflecting on personal experiences, I recall visiting Disney in January 2006 with my children, ages twelve, ten, and seven. We often travel in groups for a more enjoyable experience. Post-ride, I felt incredibly dizzy, confirming I likely wouldn’t venture into outer space. Following a conversation with a friend, I learned about the tragic outcome of a German tourist who fell ill after riding Mission: Space and subsequently lost her life due to underlying health issues. While the ride has supporters, I reconsider my plans for space travel, including with Rocket Lab.

Emily Flippen: It’s a timely reminder to take my blood pressure medication, which I neglected this morning. I’ll be sure to address that once I get home.

David Gardner: It’s good to hear that you prioritize your health. I also take blood pressure medication daily and appreciate its importance. As it stands, Emily leads with four points to Bill’s two. Our exploration of amusement and theme parks isn’t finished yet; this is just the beginning. Now, Bill, let’s pivot to stock number seven. Happy birthday to you.

Bill Barker: Thank you!

David Gardner: I believe you celebrated a significant milestone last week.

Bill Barker: Yes, I turned 60 last week, which is why I couldn’t join earlier.

David Gardner: We managed to have Andy and Matt fill in during your absence.

Bill Barker: Though, in retrospect, it seems this week would have been more appropriate for my appearance. Now that I have turned 60, I am ready for that chapter to continue.

David Gardner: Congratulations on reaching that milestone. Do you have any advice for those who are approaching 60 or haven’t yet crossed that threshold?

Bill Barker: One lesson learned: avoid incorporating wine into your celebrations.

David Gardner: Noted.

Bill Barker: I’ve realized that while food remains equally enjoyable, too much wine, as consumed by my friends during festivities, can lead to regret.

David Gardner: So overall, did you enjoy the celebrations? You described a festival-like atmosphere.

Bill Barker: I’ve been told it was indeed a great time.

The Evolution of Information: From World Book to Google

In a recent discussion, Bill and David reflected on their shared experiences from their youth, marking the significant advancements in information access over the years. The conversation began with a trip down memory lane as David prompted Bill to recall his old ways of researching.

Grade School Research: A Nostalgic Look

Bill Barker: In grade school, you probably know the answer. It was the world book.

David Gardner: The World Book. I assume your school had a library where you would also put your nose into a few books to make sure you were doing the bibliography properly.

Bill Barker: I learned how to do a proper bibliography. I forgot all of how to do that. But yes, those were the only methods back in the day, the Dewey Decimal System.

A Changed Perspective on Information Access

David Gardner: Incredible to think about how much the world has changed. I’m going to turn 59 soon, and you just turned 60, Bill. We remember a time when researching meant going to a library or checking a World Book. Today, obtaining information is vastly easier, though not always accurate.

Bill Barker: Not all true, no. Don’t believe everything you read on the Internet, although most of us make that mistake.

David Gardner: Agreed, I sometimes make that mistake too. However, we should appreciate having one foot in this century, as life is definitely easier than it was when we were kids.

Bill Barker: It was simpler back then, wasn’t it?

David Gardner: Yes, there weren’t as many sources.

Bill Barker: It was harder to find facts, but it was easier to know as much as everyone else.

Generational Differences in Research Tools

David Gardner: Did your parents invest in a complete set of encyclopedias? It sounds like they might have with the World Book.

Bill Barker: Oh yes, Encyclopedia Britannica, World Book.

David Gardner: Emily, you are younger than we are. What did you grow up with for research? I assume it was Google.

Emily Flippen: Yeah, it’s hard for me to remember a time before Google. I was born in 1994, the same year Google started. I grew up with it; although I didn’t always have access to the tiny computer I carry around today, I did rely on Google whenever I needed information.

The Stock Discussion: Alphabet Inc.

David Gardner: Now, let’s talk about Alphabet, ticker symbol GOOG. It’s time for Stock number 7, which we will treat as a throwdown. Bill and Emily will write down their market cap range for Alphabet. Ticker symbol GOOG also has an L class. Let’s keep it simple with GOOG. Players, once Bill and Emily share their market caps, decide which one seems more accurate. If you guessed correctly, give yourself a point.

Bill Barker: I don’t know if this is right, but I’ve got 1.97-2.1 trillion.

David Gardner: So you said 1.97 trillion to 2.10 trillion. In the grand scheme, that’s not very tight; it’s 13 billion apart. But for such large figures, Bill, that’s surprisingly tight. Emily, what’s your estimate?

Emily Flippen: I’m glad it’s similar to Bill, but I thought my range might be too tight. I have 1.8 trillion to 2.35 trillion.

David Gardner: Players at home, it’s now your turn to decide. Bill’s range is 1.97-2.10 trillion, and Emily’s is 1.80-2.35 trillion. I’ll give you three seconds to think about who you believe is correct. Three, two, one. If you picked Bill, you have a point. Emily leads with four, and Bill has three.

Alphabet’s market cap is 2.00549 trillion, roughly 2.0 trillion. Both remained inside their ranges, but Bill’s 13 billion was the tighter estimate. Anyone who chose him scores a point.

Bill Barker: Just to correct the record, it’s actually 130 billion, not 13, given these huge numbers.

David Gardner: We’ll keep it in for transparency. Even an experienced host can get numbers a bit wrong. Thank you for pointing that out, Bill.

Bill Barker: Indeed, that range allows you to fit several companies into that 130 billion, and it could vary as you listen to this.

Reflections on Market Evolution

David Gardner: Before we move on to Stock number eight, let’s reminisce about when Yahoo was the search leader.

Bill Barker: It really was, until Google came along. It was almost instantaneous how Google displaced [inaudible] and that one with the dog.

David Gardner: Ask Jeeves?

Bill Barker: Yes, what was the one with the dog?

David Gardner: I can’t remember.

Bill Barker: It would fetch information for you.

David Gardner: Google truly began to overtake Yahoo as the dominant search leader around 2002-2003, shortly after it was officially founded in 1998. This transition marked a significant shift in market leadership, and Emily, you were around 8-9 years old during that time.

Exploring the Financial Landscape of Alphabet and CarGurus

Emily Flippen: Yes, I’ve definitely used Yahoo. I have a Yahoo account—well, I had one. It’s been a while since I checked it. Google, however, has always been my go-to.

David Gardner: Alphabet was first picked in Rule Breakers on May 21, 2008, by our colleague Tim Byers. Since then, it has risen twelve-fold, nearly doubling market averages over the last 17 years. Also worth noting, Alphabet has begun paying a dividend of 20 cents per share each quarter since June last year. It just went ex-dividend this week, completing its first full year at a total of 80 cents per share, which translates to about a half percent dividend yield. From its ample cash reserves, Google is starting to share some of its wealth with shareholders, which can bring benefits to income-focused investors. Bill, do you own Alphabet?

Bill Barker: Yes, I do. I allocated some shares to one of my children’s accounts back in 2008.

David Gardner: Nicely done.

Bill Barker: It turned out to be a better choice than some of the other investments I made for them that year. I’m certainly pleased with that decision.

David Gardner: Now let’s transition to Stock number 8. Emily, do you own a car?

Emily Flippen: Yes, I do own a car.

David Gardner: I assumed as much since you drove over here to XQ Studios.

Emily Flippen: That’s right.

David Gardner: Is it new or used? Want to share a bit about it? Do you like your car?

Emily Flippen: I have a used car. Honestly, I’m not really into cars. Some might find that surprising, but to me, vehicles are depreciating assets. The less time I spend thinking about my car—let alone driving it—the better. I have an old used Honda Civic.

David Gardner: Sounds practical. Is it meeting your needs?

Emily Flippen: It does the job. The experience was a bit more stressful when I was commuting daily to the office. Although I occasionally took the metro, now that I work remotely, it hardly gets used.

David Gardner: How did you acquire the used car?

Emily Flippen: Great question. I believe I got it as a trade-in from a dealership. This was an in-person sale, not a classic digital transaction that you might expect from a place like CarMax.

David Gardner: We’re in fact moving toward the topic of a different company. I’ve personally not encountered CarGurus, Ticker symbol CARG, a Boston-based automotive research and shopping website. CarGurus uses camel case in its name. For clarification, camel case refers to writing two words together and capitalizing the second word, much like “iPod.” Emily, it seems you may not be very familiar with CarGurus.

Emily Flippen: That’s accurate. I know a bit about CarMax, and I can’t help but wonder if CarGurus benefits from the recognition of its larger competitor, CarMax. I would guess CarGurus has a smaller market cap.

David Gardner: Let’s evaluate that. Emily, what do you estimate as CarGurus’ current market cap range?

Emily Flippen: I could be completely off, but I feel like it has to be a micro-cap. I don’t know anyone who has used CarGurus, much less made a purchase through them. I would guess its market cap is between $350 million and $2.5 billion.

David Gardner: You estimated a market cap range from $350 million to $2.5 billion. Once I recalibrate my expectations, that’s a range of $2.15 billion, not $21 billion nor simply $2.15 billion. Bill, have you ever heard of CarGurus?

Bill Barker: No, I haven’t. I’ll admit, there’s a chance this could be made up.

David Gardner: I admit that in my quest for knowledge on this matter, I’ve come across various Motley Fool recommendations. However, it seems we are all somewhat in the dark about CarGurus. Bill, Emily said its market cap is between $350 million and $2.5 billion. Do you find yourself agreeing or disagreeing?

Bill Barker: Given the usual trend of agreeing, particularly with a broad range, I’ll go ahead and agree.

David Gardner: Despite Bill’s strategy of agreement, it turns out CarGurus is larger than we anticipated. Its actual market cap is $3.31 billion. This brings Emily’s total to five and Bill’s to three points. Founded in 2006 by one of the co-founders of Tripadvisor, CarGurus originated as an automotive blog for users to post reviews and inquire about local dealers and car types. With time, the site attracted dealer interest for advertising, facilitating connections between dealers and buyers through inventory listings. Essentially, it functions like Tripadvisor, but for vehicles.

Emily Flippen: If that market cap checks out, I assume CarGurus is even larger than Tripadvisor now.

David Gardner: TripAdvisor does remain a public company. Reviewing its current market cap, it stands at approximately $1.88 billion, significantly smaller than CarGurus. It appears that the co-founder of Tripadvisor might have earned more through CarGurus at this point, despite Tripadvisor’s more significant historical days. Before we shift to Stock number 9, it’s noteworthy that CarGurus went public in 2017, saw its value double at one point, but subsequently lost three-quarters of its value over time. Today, its stock price has stabilized—essentially returning to its IPO level eight years later.

# Exploring the Financial Landscape of the Walt Disney Company

The recent discussion surrounding superhero movies revealed varying levels of enthusiasm among cinephiles, particularly in relation to Bill and Emily’s preferences. Bill’s admission about his theater-going habits sparked a conversation about the impact of superhero franchises on the cinematic landscape over the past two decades.

Bill Barker: I think I’ve seen around ten superhero movies in theaters.

David Gardner: That’s not many! What about counting tickets for your children as well?

Bill Barker: If that’s included, then definitely more than ten.

David then inquired about Bill’s affinity for major franchises. His responses confirmed that he appreciates the Marvel Cinematic Universe and has nostalgic ties to DC Comics.

David Gardner: What are some of your favorite superhero films?

Bill Barker: The original Spider-Man stands out to me. It was the first film that truly captured the comic book essence, merging impressive effects with engaging storytelling.

David noted the film’s release in March 2002, reflecting on how crowds responded to that cinematic experience.

Bill Barker: The audience even cheered at the end, a rare occurrence these days. I recall the Superman films, especially the second one with Christopher Reeve, which was engaging despite its less advanced effects.

As part of the discussion about reboots and sequels, David posed a question regarding Bill’s current interest in superhero movies.

Bill Barker: Honestly, I find it challenging to go to theaters now, but when I do, I prefer action-packed films like those from the Marvel franchise.

David Gardner: Very insightful. Bill, let’s transition to discussing the Walt Disney Company. Disney acquired Marvel over ten years ago, facilitating numerous adaptations and contributing to the expansive Marvel Cinematic Universe. However, Disney encompasses much more than just superhero films.

Bill Barker: The pressure is evident with the current score: Emily five, myself three.

David Gardner: What do you estimate the market capitalization of the Walt Disney Company (ticker: DIS) to be?

Bill Barker: I’ll admit this is mostly guesswork, but I feel it’s undervalued compared to its potential. Since I added shares for my kids in 2008, it hasn’t performed like Google or other investments.

Indeed, the pandemic impacted Disney’s cruise lines and parks significantly, even as they recovered somewhat post-pandemic.

David Gardner: It has been a challenging decade for Disney.

Bill Barker: Their over-investments in some Star Wars and Marvel streaming productions also played a role in their performance. My estimated market cap range is between $160 billion to $220 billion.

David Gardner: Does that estimation strike you as plausible, Emily?

Emily Flippen: It seems generally reasonable, but I can’t determine if Disney is larger or smaller than that range, which may seem embarrassing given its broad scope. I follow Disney closely as a foundational stock in Stock Advisor, and despite its recent underperformance, we maintain our support for the company.

David Gardner: The pandemic clearly wreaked havoc on their operations.

Emily Flippen: Absolutely. High expectations following the pandemic did not materialize, particularly in contrast to successful competitors like Netflix. Moreover, their traditionally profitable segments—cruise lines and theme parks—suffered losses during the crisis. Currently, all their business sectors are profitable, nonetheless.

David Gardner: Bill, it’s clear Emily has strong insight into Disney.

Bill Barker: Much better grasp than I have.

David Gardner: Emily, time to make your choice. Do you agree or disagree with Bill’s range of $160 billion to $220 billion?

Emily Flippen: I have to disagree with Bill, but I’m not certain if I think it’s larger or smaller; I just feel it’s different.

David Gardner: For the players at home, if you sided with Emily and disagreed with Bill, unfortunately, you don’t score a point this round. Bill’s estimation was accurate, as the current market cap for the Walt Disney Company is valued at approximately $177.70 billion. The company has navigated much of its journey in recent decades under Bob Iger’s leadership, who returned in 2022. However, the magic that once propelled Disney’s stock is now waning, as it remains below the valuation from a decade ago.

Emily Flippen: Iger was instrumental in spearheading many streaming initiatives that eventually led to challenges for his successor. The irony remains thick, considering that he returned to resolve issues that he helped propagate, but it’s worth acknowledging that the company’s foundation is stabilizing now.

Bill Barker: Different viewpoints exist…

Disney’s Challenges and Innovations: A Financial Perspective

David Gardner: Iger clearly enjoys the opportunity to lead after Chapek’s struggles. The stock remains below where it was ten years ago. For many of us at The Motley Fool, it’s a long-term hold. My initial investment in June 2002 came just after the release of Spider-Man with Tobey Maguire. Many claimed superhero movies were a passing trend, like the Michael Keaton Batman films of the ’80s. However, that skepticism turned out to be unfounded. My $1.80 cost basis didn’t come from choosing Disney directly; I picked Marvel and Pixar several times. While Disney’s streaming services have faced competition from Netflix, and ESPN has seen subscriber drops, there are signs the business is stabilizing, despite the pandemic’s aftermath.

Emily Flippen: Indeed, Disney’s pricing power in its parks has been remarkable. I do wonder how sustainable that is as the economy tightens. However, I believe Disney’s intellectual property, strong leadership, and the brand loyalty it has cultivated offer lasting value.

David Gardner: You’re right about that, and I’ve no interest in revisiting mission space.

Emily Flippen: And you shouldn’t.

Bill Barker: The brand connection between Star Wars, Marvel, and Pixar is profound.

David Gardner: Indeed, all these franchises contribute to Disney’s enduring legacy.

Bill Barker: Disney has so many valuable properties that will remain relevant decades, if not centuries, into the future.

David Gardner: It’s an exciting game so far! Since Bill just scored, the standings are 5-4. If you win this round, Emily, you’ll advance to next week’s World Championship. Bill, if you win, we go to a tiebreaker. Let’s move to Stock number 10. Emily, consider your years of experience. What is the earliest photo you remember sharing online?

Emily Flippen: I remember creating my Facebook profile. As a kid, I went on an educational trip to Australia and pretended to kiss a crocodile. That was my profile photo for embarrassingly long.

David Gardner: That’s a great story! How old were you during that memorable trip?

Emily Flippen: I was in middle school, but I can’t quite remember the specific age.

David Gardner: Do you have any pictures from your time on Season 45 of Survivor?

Emily Flippen: More than I want to admit.

David Gardner: Were you able to take any selfies during your stay?

Emily Flippen: No selfies allowed. I was surrounded by cameras all the time. Each week, I received a link to a Google Drive with photos from the episodes, giving me a sneak peek at how malnourished I looked.

David Gardner: Understandably so! Now, how often do you find yourself reflecting on memories from five or ten years ago because of social media?

Emily Flippen: I tend to avoid social media for that reason. Nostalgia can be very emotional. Focusing on the present and hopeful future is healthier for me.

David Gardner: Wise words. Bill, is social media a time-consuming element in your life?

Bill Barker: Yes, I’ve noticed it can be. I’ve consciously separated from Facebook and X, as I often find myself wasting time scrolling.

David Gardner: So you’ve gained wisdom along with age?

Bill Barker: That’s right. I’ve realized how unproductive it can be.

David Gardner: Now onto Stock number 10, a significant one. Today, we have another mega-cap contender: the owner of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp—this is a throwdown! As I take a moment to explain, if any listeners haven’t caught on yet, it’s time to anticipate the voting round. Emily and Bill will provide their estimated market cap range for Meta Platforms, ticker symbol META.

Listeners at home, after hearing both players’ guesses, you’ll support the most accurate one by calling out their name. Both players are ready, and it’s fascinating that we’ve had several mega-cap stocks this week, including Alphabet and now Meta. Emily, what’s your stated market cap range for Meta Platforms?

Emily Flippen: My market cap range is $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion, which feels a bit wide, but I hope I’m directionally accurate.

David Gardner: So, your range is $1.5 trillion to $1.8 trillion. Bill Barker, what is your range for Meta Platforms?

Bill Barker: I adjusted my figure at the last minute, and my range is $1.53 trillion to $1.80 trillion.

Market Cap Game Show: Tiebreaker Showdown Between Bill Barker and Emily Flippen

As we entered the final segment of the Market Cap Game Show, tension mounted with Bill and Emily both showcasing their expertise. Bill’s last-minute adjustment to his market cap range positioned him favorably, especially since it hovered just above Emily’s prediction. The atmosphere instantly shifted with a hint of competitiveness.

Bill Barker: “I originally set my estimate between 1.5 and 1.8. Last time during the Alphabet discussion, you asked for a specific digit beyond my first guess. I provided a range of 1.97 to 2.1. This time, I didn’t extend it as far. Maybe that decision will benefit me, or maybe not.”

David Gardner: “Interesting approach! It’s almost like playing ‘The Price is Right’ where someone strategically bids $0.01 to capture everything. A little gamesmanship is involved here. Players, join us in a countdown: 3, 2, 1! If you guessed Bill Barker, give yourself +1. We’ve pushed this to two decimals as Meta Platforms’ market cap rests at $1.53051 trillion, slipping within Bill’s range with an extra decimal point. It’s a thrilling tie!”

Bill Barker: “Wow!”

David Gardner: “Well deserved!”

Bill Barker: “Guess I’ll just walk away with this win.”

David Gardner: “Hold on! Our tie breaker is just getting started. Bill and Emily are headed into an 11th round after ten stock guesses that ended in a tie, proving they’re both equally adept. Get your pencils ready because more gamesmanship may emerge!”

Emily Flippen: “I’ll be setting my range wider this time!”

David Gardner: “As we approach the closing of the show, I’m not holding back on this one. Stock number 11 is ServiceNow (ticker symbol NOW), which has garnered attention from various Motley Fool services for its consistent performance. If you’re a member, you’re likely pleased, or you may be unfamiliar with the company. Here’s a brief overview: ServiceNow offers cloud-based software that facilitates IT operation management, customer service, and optimizes internal workflows. It centralizes data, streamlining tasks and enhancing organizational efficiency. Essentially, it revitalizes how major organizations tackle workflows, bolstering productivity across various teams. Now, back to the game; Bill, what is your estimated market cap range for ServiceNow, using as many decimals as you want?

Bill Barker: “No decimals for me. I’m going with 60-69 billion.”

David Gardner: “Bill’s range is 60 billion to 69 billion. Emily Flippen, how would you define ServiceNow’s market cap?”

Emily Flippen: “I’m going with 55 to 73 billion.”

David Gardner: “So we have 55 billion to 73 billion. Players, at home, it’s the moment of truth. Are you siding with Bill or Emily? 3, 2, 1—did you pick Emily Flippen? If so, add +1 to your score, as both participants veered off drastically. The actual market cap for ServiceNow is $168.12 billion. Despite their close ranges, both were underestimating the company’s value.”

Bill Barker: “Wow. I needed to double-check that myself.”

David Gardner: “Indeed, this company has demonstrated strong performance over time. Emily’s high estimate of 73 billion is significantly lower, and Bill’s guess at 69 billion falls short as well. Emily was ultimately closer to the actual figure.”

Bill Barker: “For the sake of argument, if we calculate the middle of my range, that gives 64.5 billion, while Emily’s midpoint is 64 billion.”

David Gardner: “Your calculations are correct.”

Bill Barker: “I’m just saying that my understanding of the rules might need to adapt based on outcomes.”

David Gardner: “That’s a valid point, Bill. The official rules target the parameter closest to the actual figure. However, it’s fascinating how razor-thin the margins are, despite the actual market cap difference being nearly $500 billion. Congratulations to Bill Barker for a remarkable comeback in this round!”

Bill Barker: “Let’s call it the Barker Rules.”

David Gardner: “Indeed, we may need to revisit the rules for future games. For now, congratulations to Emily with a score of six and Bill at five. It’s intriguing to recognize how closely you both played, yet ended up far from the actual market cap. Bill, any final thoughts?”

Bill Barker: “Just that my understanding of the rules has been influenced by how I hoped they would help me win.”

David Gardner: “Thanks to both, and let’s see how our listeners fared. We hope you scored even better than we did. Remember, our goal is to broaden awareness of market caps amongst everyday investors. Until next time, thanks for tuning into the Market Cap Game Show!”

Wrap-Up of the Tiebreaker: Lessons from Market Predictions

Emily Flippen: I think we were way off on that last question. I like to think I have an excuse for guessing the wrong range since I just turned 60. But, clearly, my final estimate was far from accurate, being less than half of the actual market cap.

David Gardner: Emily, any final thoughts from you?

Emily Flippen: Well, I was trying to shake things up, but that did not come through at the end. I mentioned at the beginning that I would probably be off by $100 billion at some point, and I am disappointed it happened with the tiebreaker question.

David Gardner: That was the deciding factor for the competition, making it a remarkable conclusion. We hope our audience scored some points this week too, and maybe even outperformed one or both of our competitors. The phrase “so close yet so far” aptly captures our tiebreaker. Bill and Emily, you both distinguished yourselves and contributed to making our community a bit smarter, happier, and richer as a result. Emily, we look forward to seeing you next week for the world championship. Thank you, Bill and Emily, and Fool on.

Emily Flippen: Fool on.

Bill Barker: Fool on.

Randi Zuckerberg, former director of market development at Facebook and sister of Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, serves on The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, the former CEO of Whole Foods Market, now an Amazon subsidiary, is also a board member. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is part of The Motley Fool’s board. Bill Barker holds positions in Alphabet, Intuitive Surgical, Nvidia, and Walt Disney. David Gardner has stakes in Alphabet, Amazon, Intuitive Surgical, Middleby, Netflix, Six Flags Entertainment, Tesla, Walmart, and Walt Disney. Emily Flippen, CFA, has a position in Okta. The Motley Fool endorses and invests in Alphabet, Amazon, CarGurus, CarMax, Intuitive Surgical, Meta Platforms, Middleby, Netflix, Nvidia, Okta, Pure Storage, ServiceNow, Six Flags Entertainment, Tesla, Tripadvisor, Uber Technologies, Walmart, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool also recommends Amgen, Rocket Lab USA, and Western Alliance Bancorporation. For more details, please refer to The Motley Fool’s disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.