Alphabet Earnings Report: Key Insights Ahead of April 2025 Release

Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) is set to release its earnings report on Thursday, April 24, 2025. As the release date nears, event-driven traders may find it beneficial to review historical stock performance that follows past earnings announcements. Alphabet currently holds a market capitalization of $1.9 trillion and generated $350 billion in revenue over the past twelve months, yielding an operating profit of $112 billion and a net income of $100 billion.

Consensus Expectations for Upcoming Earnings

For the upcoming earnings report, consensus estimates project earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03 on revenues of $89.2 billion. This marks potential growth compared to the same quarter last year, where the company recorded sales of $80.5 billion and an EPS of $1.89.

Strategies for Potential Investors

Traders looking to leverage the earnings announcement have two primary strategies based on historical patterns. The first strategy is to examine Alphabet’s stock reaction to previous earnings reports. Historically, during 11 of the last 20 earnings events, Alphabet’s stock displayed a median one-day return of 5.6%, with a peak one-day increase of as much as 10%. Understanding these historical trends can help inform trading strategies before the earnings release.

The second strategy involves analyzing the relationship between immediate stock reactions and medium-term performance after earnings reports. By assessing the initial market response, traders can identify possible opportunities for subsequent investments. Ultimately, actual market reactions will hinge on how the reported results measure up against consensus expectations and general market sentiment.

Alphabet’s Historical Odds of Positive Post-Earnings Returns

Investors may find the following observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns insightful:

• In the last five years, there were 20 reported earnings events, yielding 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, indicating that positive returns occurred roughly 55% of the time.
• This figure drops to 42% when looking solely at data from the past three years.
• The median return among the 11 positive outcomes was 5.6%, while the median loss for the 9 negative outcomes was -5.0%.

Further details on observed 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns following earnings can be found in the table below.

GOOG observed 1D, 5D, and 21D post-earnings returns

Correlation Analysis of Historical Returns

Another strategy centers on the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings. Identifying pairs with the highest correlation—such as between 1D and 5D returns—can facilitate strategic trading positions. For example, if the 1D post-earnings return is positive and shows a strong correlation with 5D returns, a trader might choose to go long for the subsequent five days. The following data provides insights into correlation based on both the last five and three years.

GOOG Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

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The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.