Wheat Futures Decline Amid Weak Export Sales and Weather Forecasts

The wheat market remains under pressure as futures trade lower during Thursday’s session. Chicago SRW futures are down by 1 to 2 cents at midday. Similarly, Kansas City HRW contracts are also experiencing a decrease of 1 to 2 cents. Meanwhile, MPLS spring wheat is trading with losses in the same range.

Forecasted rains in several regions of HRW country are limiting any potential upward movement in prices.

Weaker Export Sales Data

Export Sales data released this morning reports a net reduction of 145,016 MT of wheat for the week ending April 17. This figure falls within the estimated range of between a net reduction of 150,000 MT and net sales of 200,000 MT, marking the second-lowest figure for this marketing year. Among the buyers, Vietnam purchased 75,300 MT, while Nigeria received 37,000 MT. However, there were cancellations from an unknown buyer totaling 158,400 MT, alongside 75,800 MT in reductions from Mexico. New crop sales totaled 371,712 MT, exceeding expectations, which were set between 100,000 to 300,000 MT, and marking the second-highest total for the marketing year. Mexico emerged as the largest buyer of the new crop, securing 112,000 MT, with Japan following closely with 93,200 MT purchased.

European Production Estimates

The European Commission has projected EU wheat production at 126.3 MMT for 2022, reflecting a slight decline from previous estimates. Additionally, ending stocks for the 2024/25 year are expected to reach 10.7 MMT, which is a 1.3 MMT increase from earlier forecasts. Projections for the 2025/26 year foresee stocks at 8.5 MMT, up 1.2 MMT from prior estimates.

Current Futures Prices

May 25 CBOT Wheat is priced at $5.26 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.42, down 1 1/2 cents.

May 25 KCBT Wheat stands at $5.35 3/4, down 2 cents.

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat is listed at $5.48 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents.

May 25 MGEX Wheat is at $5.89 1/2, down 2 cents.

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat is trading at $6.05 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

On the publication date, Austin Schroeder did not hold (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information provided is for informational purposes only. For more details, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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