Key Economic Reports and Earnings Week Ahead: What to Watch

Monday, April 28, 2025

This week is crucial for the Stock market. The week includes key employment data from JOLTS, private sector payrolls, and the Employment Situation report. Additionally, investors will receive the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The earnings season for Q1 is also reaching its peak, adding to the market’s significance.

Jobs Week Overview: JOLTS, ADP, and Nonfarm Payrolls

Tuesday begins with the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) results, although these figures are a month old compared to other employment metrics released later in the week. Analysts forecast a drop in job openings to 7.4 million for March, down from 7.57 million in February. The data has mostly remained consistent over the past year, aside from a low of 7.1 million in September and a peak of 8.09 million last April.

On Thursday, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) is expected to report significantly lower private-sector job gains at around 110,000, a decrease from 155,000 in the previous month. This follows a notable increase of 84,000 reported for February. Over the last year, we’ve seen fluctuations, including a high of 221,000 in October and a low of just 42,000 in July.

Weekly Jobless Claims have remained steady, particularly since March 1. Analysts predict initial jobless claims will rise slightly to 226,000, up from 222,000 the previous week. Continuing claims have shown a downward trend as well, with last week’s figure at 1.84 million. These indicators support the view of a resilient labor market.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), nonfarm payroll growth is projected to slow down significantly, dropping to approximately 130,000 for April from 228,000 in March. The impact from layoffs associated with the federal government’s DOGE program may finally reflect in the data. However, recent figures have tended to surprise positively. The unemployment rate and wage growth are expected to remain stable at 4.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Anticipated PCE Data with Inflation Projections

Wednesday marks the end of April, when the latest PCE report is set to be released before market opening. The month-over-month pace is anticipated to drop to 0.0% from +0.3% in March, while the year-over-year figure is expected to decline to +2.2% from +2.5%. The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, is projected at +0.1% month-over-month, down from +0.4%, and at +2.5% year-over-year, a decrease from +2.8% the previous month.

Q1 Earnings Reports: Performance Overview and Expectations

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) released its Q1 results before the market opened this week. Earnings per share were reported at $4.33, surpassing the Zacks consensus forecast of $4.06. However, revenues of $1.1 billion fell short of estimates by -0.79%. U.S. same-store sales were unexpectedly negative at -0.5%, while international sales grew by +3.7%. Consequently, the stock is down -1.5% ahead of today’s opening, contributing to a -5% decline for the year-to-date.

Following today’s market close, we will hear earnings reports from NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), steel manufacturer Nucor (NUE), and Seattle-based cloud security firm F5 (FFIV). On Wednesday, Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are slated to report, while Thursday will bring updates from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).

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Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), Nucor Corporation (NUE), Domino’s Pizza Inc (DPZ), F5, Inc. (FFIV), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META).

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Nasdaq, Inc.