Exxon Mobil’s Mixed Q4 Results and Market Performance Analysis

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), based in Spring, Texas, is a significant player in the global energy sector. The company focuses on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. Currently, it boasts a market capitalization of $456.9 billion and operates through segments including Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products.

Recent Stock Performance

Over the past 52 weeks, Exxon Mobil’s share prices have underperformed compared to the broader market. XOM shares have decreased by 10.7%, contrasting with a 10.6% increase in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). In terms of year-to-date performance, XOM has seen a 1.8% decline, while the S&P 500 has dropped by 5.3%.

However, when compared to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), which has decreased by 13.9% over the last year and 6% in the current year, Exxon Mobil’s performance holds up better.

Q4 2024 Financial Results

Exxon Mobil’s stock dropped by 2.5% following its mixed Q4 2024 results announced on January 31. The company reported revenue of $83.4 billion, marking a 1.1% decline year-over-year largely due to an unfavorable pricing mix. Nonetheless, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1.67, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $1.55.

Outlook for 2025

Looking ahead, analysts forecast a decline of 16.2% in Exxon Mobil’s adjusted EPS for the fiscal year ending December 2025, projecting a figure of $6.53. The company’s earnings surprise history has been mixed; it has exceeded consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, missing in one.

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Adjustments

Among the 24 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is categorized as a “Moderate Buy.” This is based on 16 “Strong Buy” ratings, seven “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.” This outlook is slightly more optimistic than three months ago, where there were 15 “Strong Buy” ratings.

On April 23, Barclays analyst Betty Jiang adjusted Exxon Mobil’s price target to $130 while retaining an “Overweight” rating. This revision appears to consider a cautious outlook for Q1 alongside lowered oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 amid broader macroeconomic uncertainties.

As of now, Exxon Mobil is trading below the average price target of $124.30, with the highest price target sitting at $144, suggesting a potential upside of 36.3% based on current price levels.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information, please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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