May 6, 2025

Ron Finklestien

“Palantir Stock Falls 9% Despite Impressive Earnings and 71% Growth in U.S. Commercial Revenue”

Palantir Technologies Reports Strong Q1-2025 Earnings Amid Stock Decline

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) saw its stock fall 9.3% in after-hours trading on Monday after the company released its earnings report for the first quarter of 2025. The decline likely stemmed from the company merely meeting Wall Street’s consensus earnings expectations. Despite impressive earnings growth, simply matching analysts’ forecasts can lead to a post-earnings stock drop, especially for a company with a high valuation, such as Palantir.

Prior to the earnings release, Palantir stock was valued at 238 times expected earnings for the upcoming year. In comparison, shares of Nvidia and Broadcom, leading AI chipmakers, were trading at 26 and 31 times forward projected earnings, respectively.

Despite the stock decline, the earnings report revealed significant growth metrics. Palantir’s revenue exceeded Wall Street expectations, with second-quarter guidance exceeding analyst forecasts. The company also raised its full-year 2025 guidance across multiple metrics.

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Image source: Getty Images.

Key Financial Metrics for Palantir Technologies

Metric Q1 2024 Q1 2025 Change*
Revenue $634 million $884 million 39%
GAAP operating income $81 million $176 million 117%
Adjusted operating income $226 million $391 million 73%
GAAP net income $106 million $214 million 102%
Adjusted net income $197 million $334 million 70%
GAAP earnings per share (EPS) $0.04 $0.08 100%
Adjusted EPS $0.08 $0.13 63%

Data source: Palantir Technologies. GAAP = generally accepted accounting principles. Calculations by author except for revenue growth, which was provided by Palantir.

Investors may find the adjusted numbers more relevant, as they exclude one-time items. Wall Street expected an adjusted EPS of $0.13 on revenue of $862.1 million. Palantir met the profit expectation and surpassed revenue forecasts, exceeding its own guidance for revenue between $858 million to $862 million. The company does not typically issue earnings guidance.

During the quarter, Palantir generated cash flow of $310 million from operations, a 139% increase from the previous year. The adjusted free cash flow was $370 million, up 149% year over year. By the end of the quarter, Palantir held $5.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, an increase from $5.2 billion in the previous quarter, and reported no long-term debt.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

All percentage growth figures are year over year.

  • Commercial revenue rose 33% to $397 million, making up 45% of total revenue.
  • Government revenue increased 45% to $487 million, representing 55% of total revenue.
  • U.S. revenue climbed 55% to $628 million, accounting for 71% of total revenue, with non-U.S. revenue at 29%.
  • Total customer count grew by 39%.
  • The company closed 139 deals over $1 million, including 51 deals of at least $5 million and 31 deals above $10 million.
  • U.S. commercial revenue jumped 71% to $255 million.
  • The number of U.S. commercial customers surged 65%.
  • Total contract value (TCV) for U.S. commercial deals soared 183% to $810 million.
  • The remaining deal value in U.S. commercial jumped 127% to $2.32 billion.
  • U.S. government revenue increased 45% to $373 million, expanding from its initial base in defense and intelligence agencies to other sectors.

Guidance for Q2 2025 and Full-Year 2025

For Q2 guidance:

  • Revenue is projected between $934 million and $938 million, indicating growth of around 38% year over year.
  • Adjusted operating income is forecasted at $401 million to $405 million, suggesting growth of 58% to 60% year over year.

Before the release, Wall Street had estimated Q2 revenue at $899 million, or 33% growth, making Palantir’s guidance a significant beat.

For the full year guidance:

Metric Prior 2025 Guidance Current 2025 Guidance Wall Street Estimate Change Implied by Guidance* YOY
Total revenue $3.741 billion to $3.757 billion $3.890 billion to $3.902 billion $3.75 billion 36% (up from 31%)
U.S. commercial revenue Greater than $1.079 billion Greater than $1.178 billion N/A At least 68% (up from at least 54%)
Adjusted operating income $1.551 billion to $1.567 billion $1.711 billion to $1.723 billion N/A 52% to 53% (up from 38% to 39%)
Adjusted free cash flow $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion N/A 28% to 44% (up from 20% to 36%)
GAAP operating income and net income Both positive in each quarter Same as prior guidance N/A

Data source: Palantir Technologies. YOY = year over year. *Calculations by author except for total figures.

# Palantir’s Solid Earnings Report: Cautious Optimism Ahead

Palantir Technologies recently issued its revenue and U.S. commercial revenue growth guidance for the upcoming period. The report was strong, showcasing the company’s solid performance.

Strong Financial Results, Investor Caution Advised

In summary, Palantir delivered impressive results, although its stock experienced a decline. This decrease can be attributed to investors’ high expectations for immediate earnings growth, which may not align with Palantir’s long-term strategy.

In November 2024, I noted that Palantir has the potential to become a long-term winner like Nvidia. As I still believe Palantir stock is a worthwhile investment, it is essential to approach it with caution, especially considering its current valuation of 238 times projected forward earnings.

For those contemplating an investment, only individuals with long-term perspectives should consider buying into Palantir. If you choose to invest, implement a dollar-cost-averaging strategy. This involves committing a set dollar amount at regular intervals, such as quarterly, which helps mitigate the risk of making a large purchase just before a potential market downturn.

Is Now the Right Time to Invest $1,000 in Palantir Technologies?

Before investing in Palantir Technologies, keep the following in mind:

The Motley Fool’s analyst team has highlighted what they believe are the ten best stocks to buy currently, and Palantir Technologies did not make the list. The selected stocks have the potential to deliver significant returns in the coming years.

Consider, for instance, when Netflix was recommended on December 17, 2004; a $1,000 investment at that time would now be worth approximately $623,685. Similarly, if you had invested $1,000 in Nvidia when it was listed on April 15, 2005, that investment would now amount to around $701,781.

It’s important to note that the total average return for the Stock Advisor program stands at 906%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 164% during the same timeframe.

The evaluations presented here reflect the views of the author and do not necessarily align with the perspectives of Nasdaq, Inc.