Nike’s Upcoming Dividend: Examining the Potential for a Dividend Run
This morning, a “Potential Dividend Run Alert” was issued for Nike (NYSE: NKE) through our Dividend Alerts service. Let’s explore the implications of this alert in greater detail.
Understanding Dividend Runs
To grasp a “Dividend Run,” we must first look at what happens on a company’s ex-dividend date. This date is significant because it determines who is entitled to receive the upcoming dividend. In simple terms, to receive the dividend, investors need to buy shares before this date.
On the ex-dividend date, a stock’s price typically drops by the amount of the dividend. For instance, if a stock is set to pay a 0.40 dividend, its price is expected to decrease by 0.40 on that date. This makes sense since buyers after the ex-dividend date won’t receive the dividend and thus shouldn’t pay as much for the stock.
The Anticipation of a Dividend Run
Given that a stock is expected to drop by the dividend on the ex-dividend date, it stands to reason that the stock might rise leading up to that date. If a dividend-paying stock consistently fell on ex-dividend dates without any price increase beforehand, its value would eventually diminish—an unlikely scenario for a profitable company that pays dividends. Therefore, there’s often a “built-in” pressure for the stock price to increase ahead of the dividend—leading to a potential Dividend Run.
Different investors have varying strategies regarding when to take advantage of these runs. Some aim to buy and then sell on target dates, while others adopt dollar-cost averaging strategies. Some might choose to buy shares shortly before the ex-dividend date, hold for the dividend, and sell afterward. Others might sell the day before to maximize their capital gains. The common timeframe discussed is buying about two weeks (or ten trading days) before the intended sale.
Nike’s Recent Dividend History
For example, consider Nike’s 0.40/share dividend that went ex-dividend on March 3, 2025. The previous trading day, shares closed at 79.43, while two weeks prior, on February 13, shares had closed at 73.21, showing a price increase of 6.22 during that period.
Reviewing the last four dividend payments from Nike, this strategy yielded a capital gain exceeding the dividend three out of four times, accumulating a “Dividend Run” total of +12.68 in gains. This figure is notably higher than the total dividends paid during those four cycles, which amounted to 1.54. The detailed history is as follows:
| Ex-Dividend | ——Price 2 Weeks Prior—» | ——Price 1 Day Prior—» | Run Gain/Loss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/03/25 | 0.4 | 02/13/25 | 73.21 | 02/28/25 | 79.43 | +6.22 |
| 12/02/24 | 0.4 | 11/14/24 | 75.68 | 11/29/24 | 78.77 | +3.09 |
| 09/03/24 | 0.37 | 08/16/24 | 83.23 | 08/30/24 | 83.32 | +0.09 |
| 06/03/24 | 0.37 | 05/16/24 | 91.77 | 05/31/24 | 95.05 | +3.28 |
| Div Total: | 1.54 | “Divvy Run” Total: | +12.68 | |||
Nike’s next dividend of 0.40/share is scheduled to go ex-dividend on June 2, 2025. Will history repeat itself?
Upcoming Dividend: 0.40/share
Ex-Div Date: 06/02/25
Payment Date: 07/01/25
Dividend Frequency: Quarterly
While past performance does not guarantee future results, Nike remains a noteworthy stock for those investing in dividend runs. The company currently presents an implied annualized yield of 2.54%.
Stay informed about future Dividend Run candidates, and consider signing up for our Dividend Alerts feature to receive updates directly in your inbox.
See:
• The Ten Biggest ETFs
• RYES Videos
• Top Ten Hedge Funds Holding RVTY
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
