As of today, July NY world sugar #11 is down -0.09 (-0.54%), reaching a nearly 4-year nearest-futures low, while August London ICE white sugar #5 is up +1.20 (+0.26%). This follows a two-month selloff driven by expectations of a global sugar surplus, with the USDA projecting a 2025/26 sugar output of 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), a 4.7% increase year-over-year, and a surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.
India’s sugar production is projected to rise +19% y/y to 35 MMT, largely due to favorable rainfall and increased cane acreage. The outlook for Thailand also shows a +14% y/y increase in sugar production to 10 MMT. Conversely, Brazil’s sugar production is expected to decline by 6.8% y/y for the first half of May 2025/26 to 2.408 MMT, creating mixed signals for global sugar prices. Overall, the International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit of -5.47 MMT for 2024/25, the highest in nine years, amid tightening market conditions.
